Air crash in Aktau: What happened to the plane and how Russia is downplaying the version involving the missile defense system.
On the morning of December 25, 2025, a passenger plane, Embraer 190, belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL), crashed near Aktau in western Kazakhstan while en route from Baku to Grozny. The exact cause remains unclear, but media reports suggest possibilities ranging from a bird strike to being hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile.
Details about the incident and the most plausible theories can be found in the article by RBK-Ukraine.
Embraer Crash near Aktau: What Happened
The Embraer 190 was heading to Grozny (Chechnya), but due to landing difficulties, it was redirected to Aktau. According to Flightradar24, the flight took off from the Azerbaijani capital at 07:50 Kyiv time, but around 08:40, it disappeared from radar near Vladikavkaz (North Ossetia) and reappeared at 10:07 over the Caspian Sea, with tracking ceasing completely at 10:28.
The aircraft was approaching the airport in Aktau, following a rather erratic flight path. It continuously altered its altitude and direction, indicating potential control issues. The pilots deployed the landing gear but were unable to land the aircraft. The moment of the crash was captured on video: the plane struck the ground, followed by an explosion.
Over the Caspian Sea, the aircraft issued a distress signal and attempted an emergency landing, but it crashed in a field near the runway. Prior to the crash, it struggled to maintain altitude for over an hour.
As a result, 38 out of the 67 people on board lost their lives: both pilots, along with seven citizens of the Russian Federation, six citizens of Kazakhstan, and 23 from Azerbaijan. In response to the crash, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cut short his visit to Russia, where he was attending a CIS summit. A day of mourning has been declared in the country.
A delegation from Azerbaijan's State Civil Aviation Agency, along with representatives from AZAL, has already arrived in Aktau. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Brazil (Embraer is a Brazilian company) have joined forces for a comprehensive investigation.
The Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan confirmed that the investigation will be conducted according to international standards. The recent crash is one of the most serious incidents in regional civil aviation in recent times.
Bird Strike, Cylinder Explosion, and System Failure: Three Theories in Russian Media
According to the official version, the crash may have been caused by a collision with a flock of birds. This was initially stated by AZAL and the spokesperson for Rosaviatsiya, Artem Korenyako.
According to the health department of the Mangistau region of Kazakhstan, an oxygen cylinder reportedly exploded on board as well. "The oxygen cylinder exploded, and people began to lose consciousness," - writes orda.kz, citing eyewitnesses.
Birds frequently enter engines, but such incidents rarely lead to crashes with fatalities. Typically, aircraft retain control and can safely land on one operational engine.
Photo: Russian propaganda focused on theories ranging from a bird strike to an explosion inside the aircraft (Getty Images)
Russian "Interfax" reported a failure of one of the main systems. "The aircraft issued a distress signal and then disappeared from radar screens. Thus, the version of technical malfunction is currently being considered as a priority," - noted a source in emergency services, without going into details.
Meanwhile, Embraer ERJ-190-100LR aircraft are relatively new and have high safety records. The AZAL aircraft was manufactured in 2013 and underwent a full technical inspection just weeks before the crash.
There are many theories, and it is premature to discuss them, stated Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. "According to the information provided to me, the AZAL aircraft on the Baku - Grozny route altered its course due to deteriorating weather conditions and began moving towards Aktau airport, where the accident occurred during landing," - he added.
However, none of the aforementioned theories explain the numerous holes in the aircraft's fuselage. This raises the possibility of external impact on the airframe, potentially from a surface-to-air missile.
Did a Russian Surface-to-Air Missile Hit the Plane?
Several OSINT analysts noted that the marks on the fuselage resemble the aftermath of a surface-to-air missile strike, such as from the "Pantsir-S1" system.
In particular, Oliver Alexander (who collaborates with leading Western media) pointed out the entry and exit holes. In his opinion, such damage could not result from a bird strike or a crash. "It appears that each fragment that struck the aircraft had sufficient kinetic energy to breach the fuselage rather than just leave a dent," - he explained.
Multiple holes on the tail and stabilizer support the theory of external impact, military analyst Julian Repke from Bild wrote. According to military observer Yan Matveev, some damage is cylindrical in shape, corresponding to the shapes of the warheads used by the "Pantsir-S1" system.
The head of the Center for Counteracting Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Andrey Kovalенко, wrote that Russians who reviewed the crew's communications acknowledged that the aircraft had been targeted by air defense. Today, anonymous Telegram channels are publishing the pilots' remarks, their authenticity unverified, but it seems the crew may not have known what was happening until the last moment.
Kovalенко believes that the aircraft was denied landing permission in Grozny or Makhachkala (within the territory of the Russian Federation) for a reason. "Only the professional actions of the pilots prevented the Russians from turning this incident into a provocation against Ukraine. And now Russia will do everything to conceal its own guilt in the crash and the loss of lives," - he noted.
This afternoon, Euronews, citing government sources in Azerbaijan, reported that preliminary investigation data confirmed: the cause was a missile launched from Russian air defense over Grozny. According to them, the missile was fired during a drone attack on the Chechen capital. Its fragments struck passengers and crew members, exploding near the aircraft. Despite the pilots' request for an emergency landing, they were ordered to fly over the Caspian Sea towards Kazakhstan.
The Ukrainian specialized portal Defence Express points out that before the crash over Grozny, drones were being shot down, likely including by the "Pantsir" system. It is possible that the system misidentified the targets, as it can operate in automatic mode. Thus, without human intervention, the system may have been unable to distinguish the passenger aircraft from a drone.
How Propaganda Tried to Conceal the Drone Attacks on Grozny
Russian authorities are downplaying all evidence that could indicate the AZAL aircraft was hit by an air defense missile. In particular, yesterday, propaganda focused on theories about the cylinder and birds, ignoring the drone attack on Grozny.
The drone attacks became known through the Chechen public page NIYSO. The regional head, Ramzan Kadyrov, did not comment on it, but his nephew, the secretary of the local Security Council, Hamzan Kadyrov, wrote "everything was shot down" on his Instagram.
Until the last moment, Russian authorities attempted to conceal the drone attacks on Vladikavkaz, where an explosion occurred at the "Alania Mall." Initially, propaganda reported a gas explosion, but it turned out that the mall was not connected to gas at all. Later, the head of North Ossetia revealed that debris from a UAV had fallen nearby.
Photo: the crash site of the aircraft in Kazakhstan (facebook.com/azamat.sarsenbaev)
On central channels, news reports mentioned the difficult conditions at Grozny airport due to fog, with no mention of the "Carpet" plan in the North Caucasus. It was also stated that the aircraft headed to Aktau, having supposedly turned back over Makhachkala. This contradicts the trajectory shown on Flightradar24.
In reports from the crash site, a life vest with a hole was displayed, allegedly "pierced by a fragment of a cylinder." However, the numerous holes in the rear fuselage, indicating missile damage, were not shown in any of the reports.
What a Ukrainian Aviation Expert Thinks About the Crash
Aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap noted various-sized holes on the fuselage. In his opinion, it is possible that, in addition to a missile, the aircraft was also fired upon with anti-aircraft artillery rounds from the "Pantsir."
"Most likely, there was an explosion from a 'Pantsir' missile; possibly, something else was added. That seems to be the case, especially since just days ago, Kadyrov requested two or three 'Pantsirs' from Putin.