A financial expert has predicted the dollar exchange rate for 2025.
The economic situation in Ukraine continues to be under pressure from various factors, including military actions and economic challenges. This will impact currency value. It is expected that the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar will be in the range of 45-47 hryvnias per dollar by 2025. This was stated in an exclusive comment by UNN by financial expert and co-founder of the first fintech ecosystem in Ukraine, Concord Fintech Solutions, Elena Sosedka.
It is important to note that the average exchange rate of the dollar in currency exchange offices in Kyiv is 42.75 hryvnias per dollar.
Factors Influencing Currency Exchange Rates
According to Elena Sosedka, several key factors will contribute to the rise of the dollar in Ukraine this year. First and foremost, the impact of military actions on the economic situation in the country is significant.
"The war continues to have a negative effect on the economy, hindering investment inflows and limiting economic activity," noted the financial expert.
The second factor affecting the exchange rate will be the reduction in exports.
"Exports from Ukraine have decreased by more than 30% compared to the pre-war period. This significantly reduces foreign currency revenues, increasing pressure on the hryvnia," explained Elena Sosedka.
The ongoing rise in production costs will also be detrimental to the hryvnia this year.
"Prices for energy resources and key materials rose on average by 15-20% in 2024. This increases production costs and weakens the competitiveness of Ukrainian products in global markets," added Elena Sosedka.
The closure of businesses and tax burdens will further intensify pressure on the hryvnia. Elena Sosedka noted that according to official data, around 162,000 individual entrepreneurs closed their businesses in Ukraine in 2023. In 2024, the number of closed individual entrepreneurs reached 210,000, marking a record high in recent years.
"The mass closure of businesses reduces tax revenues to the budget and decreases business activity," emphasized Elena Sosedka.
Hryvnia Exchange Rate Forecast for 2025
The financial expert explained that the current economic state and expected trends allow for a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate at 45-47 hryvnias per dollar in 2025.
"Based on current economic trends, including:
• the ongoing war,
• rising costs of resources,
• decreased foreign currency revenues,
• increased tax burden,
It can be assumed that the hryvnia to dollar exchange rate in 2025 may reach 45-47 hryvnias per dollar," noted Elena Sosedka.
Despite the challenging economic situation, Sosedka emphasizes that assistance from international financial organizations could play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy. She added that this forecast is based on current macroeconomic data and may be adjusted depending on external and internal factors, including the situation regarding military actions and support from international financial organizations. Elena Sosedka reiterated that assistance from international financial organizations could be vital for stabilizing the economy.
Reminder
Earlier, Elena Sosedka mentioned in a comment to UNN that it is likely the dollar exchange rate will continue to rise until the end of the year. Overall, by 2025, the expert stated that the dollar price may increase by approximately 2 hryvnias.
"The expected rise in the dollar rate by the end of (2024 - ed.) year can be explained by the shortage of currency in the market, which is caused by inflation risks and restrictions on access to international capital markets. It is important for the government and the National Bank of Ukraine to take measures to stabilize the financial system and enhance investor confidence. At this stage, the priority should be ensuring macroeconomic stability and supporting domestic businesses," noted Elena Sosedka.
Additionally
The budget for 2025 includes an exchange rate set at 45 hryvnias per dollar.