Trump's agent and Europe's plan: what actions are allies taking to bring an end to the conflict?

Not long ago, influential Western media predicted that the former head of American intelligence, 58-year-old Richard Grenell, might become the U.S. Secretary of State or the special representative for peace negotiations in Ukraine. However, the position of Secretary of State was filled by Senator Marco Rubio, and the role of special envoy will go to retired General Keith Kellogg following Trump’s return to the Oval Office. Trump has decided to appoint Grenell as a special envoy for specific assignments. In his announcement regarding the new appointment, the leading Republican did not elaborate on Grenell's exact responsibilities but stated on his social media platform Truth Social that the envoy "will work in the hottest spots around the world."

During Donald Trump's first presidential term, Grenell served as the acting Director of National Intelligence and also acted as the president's envoy in negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo. As reported by the American public broadcaster NPR, in 2020, Kosovo authorities accused Grenell of pushing them towards concessions in negotiations with Serbia, taking the same stance as Belgrade.

At that time, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti stated that Grenell was trying to quickly achieve a deal between the parties to secure another foreign policy success for the Trump administration. As a result, the then pro-American government of Kosovo was dismissed (later, however, Kurti returned to the position of head of government).

From 2018 to 2020, Richard Grenell served as the U.S. ambassador to Germany, during which time he criticized the German government's policies on a number of issues, including Berlin's relations with China and Iran. He was also accused of using his position to forge alliances with right-wing parties in Germany and Europe as a whole.

It is important to note that Richard Grenell participated in the meeting between Trump and President Zelensky in New York, which took place shortly before the U.S. presidential elections. Alongside him and Trump, the elected U.S. Vice President JD Vance was also present at the table, who discussed with Zelensky during a recent visit the paths that could lead to a peace agreement.

Notably, following Trump, Grenell condemned the recent decision of outgoing President Joe Biden's administration to allow Ukraine to strike targets within the aggressor country using American missiles. "No one expected Joe Biden to escalate the war in Ukraine during the transition period," Grenell wrote on X. "This is akin to starting a completely new war. Everything has changed; all previous calculations can be disregarded. And all this for the sake of politics."

In the summer, Grenell advocated for the establishment of "autonomous zones" in eastern Ukraine but did not provide further details. He also expressed the opinion that Ukraine's NATO membership does not serve the interests of the United States.

As noted by the Financial Times (FT), Grenell's appointment as special envoy gives him broad and somewhat vague powers. Analysts expect that under Trump, American foreign policy will be more isolationist, and it is believed that Richard Grenell fully shares this worldview. Recently, he stated in an FT interview that Western European allies of Washington are "stuck" in outdated thinking. "We like coalitions of those who want to get things done," Grenell emphasized. "The UN may be important, but it’s not the only tool, and sometimes it's not very useful. We prefer to create coalitions with people who want to achieve their goals."

Grenell is also "firmly convinced" that, in just a few minutes, the White House occupant Donald Trump is "fantastic" at negotiating. "He has shown that he knows how to bring both sides to the negotiating table," Grenell said in an FT interview. "He has done this consistently. Next will be the Arabs and Israelis, and then the Russians and Ukrainians."

By the way, on Monday, December 16, elected U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he had achieved "some progress" in negotiations to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian war. "We are trying to stop the conflict, this terrible, terrible conflict. We have made some progress, but it’s hard; it’s just awful," Trump said during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence. According to the leading Republican, the number of casualties on both sides is "much worse" than reported. He described the losses as "astronomical" and emphasized that this is why he is doing everything possible to achieve a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, former head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmytro Kuleba believes that Trump will not be able to achieve a swift end to hostilities, as there are "fundamental disagreements" between Ukraine and Russia that make peace impossible. "In my opinion, there will be no quick negotiations," the diplomat notes. He predicts that if negotiations cannot be organized, Mr. Trump may decide to suspend military aid to Kyiv. However, so far, messages from the Republican's associates have been contradictory. In particular, the aforementioned future Trump administration representative on Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, previously proposed the opposite scheme – to use military aid to Ukraine as a leverage against both our country (threatening to reduce aid in case of refusal to negotiate) and the aggressor state (implying that if they do not sit down at the negotiating table, we will "stuff" Kyiv with weapons to the teeth).

At the same time, Trump continues to hint that assistance to Ukraine will be limited in any case. Thus, the future national security advisor to the president, Michael Waltz, stated that a "blank check," meaning unlimited support, "is not a strategy, but an endless war that we seem to be getting drawn into." "What does success look like in accordance with our interests? How do we end the war? Who is at the negotiating table? How do we bring all parties to that table, and what is the structure of the agreement? These are the questions we are pondering together with his (Trump's - ed.) wonderful team that he is currently assembling," Mr. Waltz stated, emphasizing that Donald Trump aims "to make this the end of the conflict, not just a pause."

Meanwhile, the Council of Europe has approved the 15th package of sanctions against the aggressor country. It includes one of the largest microelectronics companies in Russia - "Kremlin Silicon Group." In addition, restrictions have been imposed against 32 legal entities that directly support the Russian military-industrial complex. These firms were involved in the supply of dual-use goods and technologies. Some of them are located in third countries, including China, India, Iran, Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The EU Council noted that the new sanctions package will strike at the shadow fleet of tankers and weaken Russia's military-industrial complex. More than fifty ships from third countries have been sanctioned; they are said to be "part of the shadow fleet" and allow circumventing the price cap on oil.

The blacklist has also been expanded to include 54 individuals. Among them are TV presenter Tina Kandelaki, singer Larisa Dolina, political scientist Timofey Bordachev, and head of Russia's "Avtodor" Vyacheslav Petushenko. Meanwhile, the patriarch Kirill, the thoroughly discredited representative of Russia at the UN Vasily Nebenzya, and the Russian Olympic Committee managed to avoid restrictions. They were defended by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who himself announced this on December 16, just after meeting with diplomats from European countries in Brussels. In addition, Szijjarto reported that Budapest vetoed the EU's decision to allocate €6.5 billion for military assistance to Ukraine.

At the meeting of the EU Council, which was held for the first time under the leadership of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, the idea of French President Emmanuel Macron to send a European peacekeeping mission to Ukrainian territory in case of a cessation of hostilities did not receive full support.

In Ms. Kallas's view, it is extremely premature to discuss such an initiative. She was supported by Dutch Foreign Minister Kaspar Veldkamp, who also noted that it is necessary to give "full support to Ukraine" before peace negotiations can begin, which, evidently, the incoming U.S. administration led by Republican Donald Trump will insist on after January 20, 2025.

In any case, European diplomats, having failed to reach agreement on everything in December, have already outlined the agenda for the next meeting scheduled for January 2025. In particular, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys called on colleagues to jointly appeal to the European Commission with a demand to adopt a strategy to counter "hybrid actions" by Russia, which, in his opinion, "is using hybrid attacks" to distract the EU from its "aggressive war against Ukraine." Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Sweden, and Romania have already prepared a "well-argued proposal" on this issue and intend to discuss it in detail in the new year.