Seoul faces a dilemma: will South Korean weapons be sent to Ukraine?

Upon arrival on November 27 in Seoul, the Ukrainian delegation was received by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. Additionally, the Kyiv guests, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, met with National Security Advisor Shin Won-sik. According to several Asian media outlets, the head of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, Rustem Umerov, shared intelligence regarding the transfer of North Korean troops to Russia and requested support for Ukraine's military actions. Specifically, as reported by the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post (SCMP) citing an unnamed informed source, the Ukrainian delegation prepared a detailed shortlist of requests, which included anti-aircraft missiles and artillery systems. Notably, a month ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with the South Korean television company KBS that Kyiv would send a detailed request to Seoul for the provision of weapons, including artillery and air defense systems. Therefore, in this context, Mr. Umerov acted, let’s say, as an important but still merely a courier from Bankova.

It is worth noting that since the start of the infamous Putin's "special operation," South Korea has strictly limited its assistance to non-lethal types, such as demining equipment or helmets. Gradually, however, Seoul has begun to hint that it may change this approach. "As North Korean military forces gain experience in modern warfare, this could pose a serious threat to our security. Therefore, we will adjust our level of support from humanitarian to military, depending on the extent of North Korean military involvement. We do not rule out providing weapons to Ukraine," said South Korean leader Yoon Suk-yeol at a press conference on November 7.

Warnings have been consistently issued from Moscow regarding arms supplies to Ukraine. The latest outcry on this matter came over the past weekend from Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Andrei Rudenko, who urged South Korea to refrain from "reckless steps." "Seoul should realize that the potential use of South Korean weapons to kill Russian citizens would completely collapse relations between our countries. Of course, we will respond in whatever ways we deem necessary. This is hardly going to enhance the security of the Republic of Korea," stated the Russian diplomat.

"South Korea will listen to Ukraine's request, but it is unlikely to take on clear commitments regarding the provision of weapons," said Du Jin-ho, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, to SCMP. However, according to him, the extremely cautious approach to this issue is also motivated by other factors. Primarily, the opposition's resistance, which controls the National Assembly. Notably, opposition lawmakers even threatened impeachment against the local Defense Minister if the government sends military aid to Kyiv. They cited laws prohibiting the export of arms to warring countries without parliamentary approval and equating the provision of weapons to participation in the war.

There are, however, global notes in this "song." In particular, as reported by Reuters, Donald Trump's team is considering resuming direct negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in hopes that diplomatic contacts will help reduce the risk of armed conflict. In this context, it is worth recalling that during his first term, the main Republican met with the North Korean leader three times, but this did not lead to any concrete results. Moreover, over the years, Pyongyang has significantly increased its nuclear and missile capabilities, making North Korea even less amenable to compromise in its relations with Washington. Nevertheless, given the imminent owner of the Oval Office's inclination towards dialogue with Pyongyang, experts predict that Seoul will take a wait-and-see approach regarding weapons supplies to Kyiv. On the other hand, as noted in a conversation with Lenta.UA by a representative of the domestic diplomatic corps, the fact that South Korea may not disclose, and moreover, deny providing weapons to Ukraine does not mean that it will not supply them at all, as "Seoul clearly sees its multifaceted benefits in playing on the Ukrainian side of the field."

Similar discussions about the importance of supporting warring Ukraine were recently held in Brussels. On November 27, the European Parliament approved a new composition of the European Commission (EC) led by Ursula von der Leyen, which will begin its work on December 1. The new composition of the European Commission, in which representatives from the Baltic states will be responsible for foreign policy and defense, received 370 votes in favor, 282 against, and 36 abstentions.

A significant part of Ursula von der Leyen's speech just before the vote was devoted to security issues. She called on European countries to sharply increase defense spending and bring it closer to the Russian level. According to her, the aggressor country spends up to 9% of its GDP on military needs, while the EU spends only 1.9%. "Something is wrong in this 'equation.' Our defense spending must increase," emphasized Ursula von der Leyen.

It is noteworthy that in May 2024, Putin's spokesperson Peskov noted that the budget of the Russian Ministry of Defense and security forces is approaching 6.7% of GDP. According to Ursula von der Leyen, EU states "must be as ambitious in terms of defense spending as the threats are serious." In this regard, she added, the European Union needs a unified defense market, strengthening the defense industry, improving military mobility, and joint defense projects.

Considering that the military component has never been a priority for EU activities, and the goals set are ambitious, the new composition of the EC has for the first time included a post for a European Commissioner for Defense. On November 27, former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius was appointed to this position. It is worth noting that the 67-year-old Kubilius has served as Prime Minister twice. He is rightly called a good friend of Ukraine and is a staunch supporter of the well-known saying "if you want peace, prepare for war."

Andrius Kubilius, along with the new High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy – former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas – will work towards achieving new EU defense goals. The head of the European Commission has already outlined a deadline for the newly appointed top officials: within the first hundred days in office, starting from December 1, they must present a strategic document on the future of European defense.

While Ms. von der Leyen was discussing the EC's defense plans, ambassadors from EU countries were condemning sanctions against the aggressor country. In particular, on Wednesday, November 27, a discussion took place regarding the 15th package of restrictive measures prepared by the European Commission. According to Reuters, among other things, the new package will include the addition of 29 legal entities and 54 individuals to the EU sanctions list. Furthermore, the package outlines measures against Russia's "shadow trading fleet" and secondary sanctions against companies from third countries, including China.

Interestingly, the 15th sanctions package has not yet been implemented, and the European Union is already discussing the initiation of work on the 16th. According to the same Reuters, the compilation of a new batch of restrictions will begin after January 1, 2025, when the EU presidency will pass from Hungary to Poland. In Brussels, they are considering significantly tightening sanctions against Russian liquefied gas and enhancing control over the re-export of European goods to the Russian Federation. Additionally, Brussels plans to introduce extremely strict measures against certain Russian financial structures.