Emmanuel the Peacemaker: How Macron Emerged as Europe's Leader in the Russia-Ukraine War.

It is crucial to note that Emmanuel Macron is currently navigating yet another acute domestic political crisis; however, this does not prevent him from finding time to engage in international affairs. On Thursday, December 12, the French president left Paris, where the government had recently resigned, and headed to Poland. The French leader's trip to Warsaw has a specific goal – to discuss ways to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The first official to confirm Macron's visit to Warsaw was the Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski. Since the beginning of his presidency, Emmanuel Macron has been attempting to position France as a leader in Europe, seemingly deciding not to wait for the old-new U.S. president to officially enter the Oval Office, but to promptly establish Paris's role as a leading representative of Europe in the potential resolution configuration. As Bloomberg emphasizes, the French leader has already achieved a diplomatic victory by organizing talks between Zelensky and Trump. Now, Macron aims to proactively work on organizing and promoting security guarantees for Ukraine, which are likely to imply some form of Western military presence on its territory.

According to the newspaper Rzeczpospolita, Macron arrived in Warsaw to discuss a plan for a European peacekeeping mission that could be deployed in Ukraine as part of a potential peace agreement initiated by Donald Trump. The newspaper asserts that Macron sees Poland as one of the key players in such a project.

Former NATO Assistant Secretary General Camille Grand, who worked under Jens Stoltenberg until 2022, told a Polish publication that Mr. Macron conveyed to Trump the idea that Europe cannot be sidelined in negotiations between Washington and Moscow. In Grand's view, there are three scenarios for providing Ukraine with security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire along the front line and Ukraine's refusal to regain control over its 1991 borders through military means.

The first is the "German" scenario, where our country would be accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance within the borders it controls, similar to what happened with West Germany in 1955. However, this is opposed by the U.S. under Democrat Joe Biden, and under Republican Donald Trump, such a turn seems entirely fantastical. Moreover, Berlin is likely not to support such a plan, keeping the U.S. in mind.

The second scenario is the "Israeli" model, where the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons en masse following the conclusion of peace or a truce. This plan has at least one significant drawback, which is that neither the U.S. nor European allies can provide ironclad guarantees of uninterrupted supplies in the event of a change in government in any given country.

Finally, the third plan is the "Korean" scenario, which entails the creation of a demilitarized zone between the conflicting parties. If implemented, a peacekeeping mission might likely be stationed in this zone, which is one of the reasons Macron traveled to Warsaw.

According to the aforementioned Camille Grand, Macron's attention to Poland is driven by its geographical position and the growing military potential of the republic – a leader in defense spending relative to GDP among all NATO countries. We will revisit this issue later to understand the overall defense sentiment within the Alliance.

Analysts assert that the current occupant of the Élysée Palace's idea of a peacekeeping mission appears to be quite ambitious and costly. Specifically, Elie Tenenbaum, an expert from the Paris analytical center IFRI, which is developing a hypothetical project for such a mission, explained to Rzeczpospolita that implementing this initiative would require forces equivalent to five brigades, or about 40,000 personnel. Poland could potentially command one brigade, but besides that, Mr. Macron will need other partners. It is noted that the French president has already discussed these ideas in detail with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as well as representatives from Northern European and Baltic states.

It is quite noteworthy that President Zelensky, who previously stated Ukraine's agreement to join NATO solely as a security guarantee, recently suggested that the presence of Western troops on its territory could be acceptable for Ukraine, at least for some time. "I will be frank with you: we can consider and work on Emmanuel's position," Zelensky recently stated after a meeting with the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and candidate for Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, who, unlike Mr. Scholz, who is eager to engage with Putin, strongly advocates for more substantial support for Ukraine, particularly the provision of long-range Taurus missiles.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, after his discussions with Emmanuel Macron in Warsaw, stated that they are "on the same side" on all issues. He also commented on information from Western media regarding a possible European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. "I would like to put an end to speculation on this topic. Decisions about Polish actions will be made in Warsaw and only in Warsaw. For now, we are not planning such actions," Tusk emphasized. Meanwhile, the Marshal of the lower house of the Polish parliament, Szymon Hołownia, did not rule out the participation of Polish troops in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. However, he stressed that this must be strictly under the aegis and within the structure of NATO.

As for Emmanuel Macron, he stated at a joint briefing with Tusk: "No one but France will decide what France will do. At the same time, no one else but Poland will decide what Poland will do. We are sovereign countries. We recognize the impact of the situation that has developed in Ukraine, but we make our own decisions."

The French president additionally noted that the U.S. will play a key role in supporting Ukraine "in the near future." According to him, it is essential to closely collaborate with the United States to find a solution that considers Ukraine's interests, its sovereignty, as well as the interests of Europeans and the security of Europe. "This is the philosophy we intend to focus on," the French leader concluded. He also mentioned that next week in Brussels, during a European Council meeting, leaders will discuss the issue of providing $50 billion in aid to Ukraine.

Whether Macron's peacekeeping efforts will achieve any success remains unclear. Primarily because Donald Trump has yet to present his plan for resolution, and as noted by Reuters, the Republican did not delve into the details of his potential strategy even during a meeting with Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky. Instead, the soon-to-be 47th president of the United States stated in an interview with Time magazine, which named him its Person of the Year for 2024, that he opposes strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian territory with American long-range missiles. In his view, this leads to even greater escalation of the conflict. "I completely disagree with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing this? We are simply fueling this war and making it worse," Mr. Trump asserted. Notably, he perhaps acknowledged for the first time after the elections that achieving peace between Kyiv and Moscow will be extremely challenging and that it cannot be accomplished "in 24 hours." Trump also mentioned plans to use support for Ukraine as leverage against Russia during negotiations to end hostilities. The leading Republican is convinced that the only way to reach an agreement is to "not abandon Ukraine." It is crucial to emphasize that in nearly all his public statements, the 78-year-old American leader consistently reiterates that resolving the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict is his main priority in foreign policy after assuming office in January 2025. This is, in itself, a very positive signal for us, indicating at least that the critical issue for every conscious Ukrainian will not be gathering dust on the neglected "shelves for better times" in the White House.

Meanwhile, NATO's European allies have initiated preliminary consultations on the possibility of increasing the defense spending target from 2% to 3% of GDP by 2030. This was reported by the British newspaper The Financial Times, citing sources. It is noted that the Alliance countries intend to officially agree on new commitments at the summit scheduled for summer 2025 in the Netherlands. Negotiations for such a significant revision of their collective goals were decided to begin in advance, as even now, this potential step is causing discontent among some member states, which fear strain on their national budgets.

One of the key reasons for the discussions is the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House on January 20, 2025. NATO allies took on the commitment in 2014 to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP. However, when Trump last held power, he was, to put it mildly, displeased that practically none of the partners had achieved the set target, and in his opinion, no one even attempted to fulfill their promises. In 2018, it reached the point where Donald Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the Alliance at the NATO annual summit if other countries did not increase their spending. By 2020, only nine allies were meeting the target.

With the departure of the Republican from the Oval Office, Washington's pressure on partners regarding this issue significantly decreased, and real growth in defense spending only began to occur in 2022, after the infamous Putin's "special operation" in Ukraine. It is telling that throughout this time, the leading Republican continued to criticize European NATO members and during the height of the 2024 election campaign once again threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the Alliance, insisting that partners "do not pay enough" and want to ensure their security at America's expense.

In a recent interview with NBC News, Donald Trump, when asked directly whether he could withdraw the U.S. from NATO