Friday27 December 2024
gazeta-ua.com

"Whale as a 'bulldog': Why Trump's special envoy is visiting Ukraine and what to expect from the trip."

In January, Keith Kellogg, the special representative of elected U.S. President Donald Trump, will visit Kyiv and several European capitals, as reported by Reuters citing sources. To learn more about the purpose of these visits and what might be overlooked, read the article on Lenta.UA.
Кит как «бультерьер»: зачем спецпредставитель Трампа отправляется в Украину и какие вопросы будет обсуждать?

Donald Trump, who will officially assume the presidency of the United States on January 20, 2025, continues to signal the seriousness of his intentions regarding the cessation of the full-scale war waged by Putin's Russia against Ukraine. Recently, Reuters discovered that the Republican's team plans to send Kit Kellogg, nominated as the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine, on a trip to Europe in January. Kellogg is credited with one of the peace settlement plans. Agency sources reported that Mr. Kellogg intends to visit Kyiv first and meet with the top military-political leadership there. Additionally, the 80-year-old retired lieutenant general plans to visit Paris and Rome. Reuters sources clarified that the itinerary is still being finalized, so the list of capitals the special representative plans to visit may expand. However, according to Reuters, Kellogg does not currently plan to fly to Moscow during his inaugural overseas tour in this capacity.

At the same time, Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that Kit Kellogg is allegedly prepared to visit the capital of the aggressor country after his visit to Kyiv, "if invited." The Kremlin has already responded to these signals from leading Western news agencies. Specifically, the spokesperson for the Kremlin dictator, Peskov, assured on Wednesday, December 18, that "there have been no contacts with Trump's team on this matter."

Despite Donald Trump's promise to end the conflict "in 24 hours" or "very quickly," it seems there are no expectations for breakthrough solutions from Mr. Kellogg's visit to Europe. Reuters sources assured that the purpose of the planned trip will be information gathering, not the start of active negotiations. Meanwhile, it appears that Europe has already come to terms with the idea that the main Republican, upon his return to the Oval Office, will attempt to put an end to hostilities without considering the readiness of the actual victim, namely our country. In this regard, European allies are proactively thinking through mechanisms to support Ukraine if, suddenly, the key donor in the form of the United States drops out of the support chain. Initial steps in this direction have already been taken. In particular, according to the same Reuters report, which cites unnamed informed sources, it was decided to transfer the functions of coordinator of Western military assistance to Ukraine within the framework of the "Ramstein" contact group from the U.S. to NATO. According to the publication, the new mission of the North Atlantic Alliance, "NATO Support and Training for Ukraine" (NSATU), has already begun to address coordination issues.

Moreover, European leaders gathered on December 18-19 in Brussels to discuss how to assist Ukraine in its war efforts without U.S. involvement. The formal reason for the joint "meeting" was the European Council session; however, besides the leaders of EU member states, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and President Volodymyr Zelensky also arrived in the Belgian capital during these days.

It is important to note that ahead of his visit to Brussels, the current occupant of Bankova gave an interview to the French newspaper Le Parisien, in which he stated, among other things: "Trump knows of my desire not to rush at the expense of Ukraine. The country has long been fighting for its sovereignty. No matter how many presidents or prime ministers want to announce the end of the war, we are not going to simply surrender and abandon our independence. There is a danger in 'freezing' the war and making quick agreements with Russia, and we must put Putin in his place."

The head of state also conveyed a message indicating that even in the Pechersk Hills, they recognize the inevitability of changes in the U.S. approach to the conflict. "De facto, these territories (Donbas and Crimea) are currently controlled by the Russians. We do not have the strength to reclaim them. We can only rely on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to come to the negotiating table," said the current guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution, although he had recently stated that peace negotiations were only possible after Kyiv regained control over the borders of 1991.

It should be noted that such a remark by Volodymyr Zelensky fits within the possible proposals from Trump regarding settlement, various projects of which imply, one way or another, halting hostilities along the front line and resolving territorial disputes through diplomatic means. At the same time, Zelensky believes that Ukraine should come to the negotiating table from a "strong position," but currently it is "not weak, but also not strong." In response to a question about his readiness to negotiate with Putin, the Ukrainian leader did not exclude such a possibility but articulated the following: "What matters is not who is in front of you. What matters is the state in which you conduct negotiations. I don't think we are in a weak position, but also not in a strong one. Are we in NATO? We don't know. Will we be part of the European Union? Yes, in the future, but when? Sitting down at the negotiating table with Putin under such conditions would mean giving him the right to decide everything in our part of the world. First, we need to develop a model, a plan of action, or a peace plan, call it what you want. Then we can present it to Putin or, more broadly, to the Russians."

It is quite remarkable that this position of the head of the Ukrainian state is supported by the outgoing administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, which is trying to ramp up arms supplies to our country at the last moment before the power transition in the White House, while simultaneously attempting to portray the situation in such a way that with Trump's arrival and a possible reduction in aid from the U.S., nothing catastrophic will happen for Ukraine. For instance, State Department representative Matthew Miller assured the day before that the volumes of military assistance that Washington will provide to Ukraine before Biden's term ends will be sufficient "to conduct military operations until the end of 2025."

Meanwhile, in Europe, such reassuring rhetoric does not seem to be taken seriously. Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that against the backdrop of Trump's impending return to the White House and fears of a halt in U.S. assistance, a behind-the-scenes discussion has resumed in the European Union regarding the complete confiscation of Russian state assets (about €260 billion) frozen in European banks. At the initiative of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, the EU's diplomatic service has begun assessing this issue in terms of legal and financial consequences. Already, the EU is transferring to Ukraine, in the form of loans, revenues from frozen Russian assets, but the amounts themselves remain untouched. It is noted that countries such as Germany, Belgium, and Luxembourg oppose the direct use of the aggressor country's frozen assets. By the way, on Friday, December 20, a meeting will take place at the initiative of the aggressor country regarding the supply of weapons to Ukraine by Western allies. This was reported the day before by the first deputy permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, on his Telegram channel.

Furthermore, just on December 16, a meeting on Ukraine, initiated by Western countries, took place within the walls of the United Nations Security Council. During it, the Russian permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, amidst discussions about a possible ceasefire after Trump's arrival in the White House, stated that "no schemes for freezing the conflict will suit Russia." In addition, the connoisseur of "combat mosquitoes" noted that Zelensky's peace initiatives are "an attempt to buy time to strengthen the fight against Russia and secure new military assistance." According to him, Russia is ready for negotiations, but only with those who are prepared "to accept reality and end the war." By "reality," evidently, among other Kremlin "wants," it refers to the recognition by Kyiv of the territories seized by the aggressor country as Russian.

In fact, the press conference of the Russian dictator Putin confirmed this thesis. For four and a half hours, he spun tales for the residents of his country. And, of course, he spoke about Ukraine. The Kremlin elder predictably stated that Russia is ready for negotiations on its terms, which he outlined in June. At the same time, he said he does not want to speak with Zelensky, as he considers him "illegitimate." Putin also cynically claimed that he is ready "for negotiations and compromises." At the same time, he once again accused Ukraine of refusing negotiations and repeated the myth about the supposedly reached agreements in Istanbul like a mantra.

Putin's words about a "duel" between Russia and the West – "Orlan" against air defense systems in Ukraine ("let them determine the target in Kyiv and try to shoot down the 'Orlan'") have already provoked an emotional but entirely adequate reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: "And you think that this is an adequate person? Just a frostbitten individual." Later, he referred to Putin with another word, a vulgar but quite fitting term for the Russian old gangster – "d**khead."

Once again, Zelensky explained Putin's fantasies regarding the so-called negotiations in Istanbul. Zelensky emphasized that the so-called "Istanbul agreements," often referenced by Russian propaganda and, in particular, Vladimir Putin, "never existed."

"There was an ultimatum from the Russian Federation on the very first day (of the large-scale war – Ed.) – the occupation of our state in 2022. And their 'messengers' in various directions, using various sources, showed us the details of this ultimatum," he added.

The president noted that Ukraine did not agree to the Russian ultim