A process filled with uncertainties: what's unfolding around the peace negotiations?

Dmitry Peskov's statement regarding the existence of contacts through various agencies and their intensification came shortly after Donald Trump remarked that the United States is having "very good and very constructive negotiations" with both Ukrainian and Russian leadership to resolve the conflict. Previously, the American leader had expressed his desire to "meet immediately" with Putin. The Kremlin dictator, for his part, had stated his readiness for such a rendezvous. On Thursday, February 6, Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma's committee on international affairs, announced that preparations for this meeting are "at an advanced stage" and that the summit could take place "in February or March."

Meanwhile, a clear indication that there is currently no specific request for a meeting between Trump and Putin can be found in the statement by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who claimed that the first step towards normalizing relations with Moscow must come from Washington. "We are open to dialogue and ready to negotiate in a tough bargaining mode, taking into account the realities 'on the ground' and our national interests, which are predetermined by history and geography. Therefore, the decisions and choices are up to Donald Trump and his team," Ryabkov stated.

Overall, the acknowledgment by both the White House and the Kremlin of existing contacts regarding the peace case does not come with clarity about the content of the ongoing dialogue. There remains a lot of speculation and claims surrounding this issue, which are systematically refuted in Kyiv, Washington, and the aggressor state. For instance, Bloomberg reported that U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, intends to attend the Munich Security Conference, scheduled for February 14-16, where he will present Trump's plan for ending the war. However, sources could not clarify how detailed the parameters of the proposed deal would be. According to them, potential elements of the plan could include a freeze on the conflict, keeping the issue of the territories seized by Russia "in limbo," and security guarantees for Ukraine. Kellogg himself, who is set to visit Kyiv on February 20, confirmed his participation in the conference on social media but denied any readiness to disclose the details of the "deal" from "A to Z."

"Russia has de facto withdrawn its demand for 'first elections, then real negotiations.' From what I understand, it is still very preliminary, but a roadmap is being coordinated. First. A ceasefire. Simultaneously, a certain framework document is being signed (the signatories are still being decided). Second. This framework document provides for the adoption of a package of decisions - laws, decrees, regulations, both in Ukraine and in Russia. Third. Elections as soon as possible. I want to reiterate: this is a preliminary version, and the Russians will try to derail it, primarily through the hands of Ukrainians. Their goal now is not negotiations but to buy time. What will the Russians do? They will put forward deliberately impossible conditions (from disqualifying certain politicians from running to demands to dismantle our defense industry). One can be sure that information campaigns like 'Why are negotiations happening behind closed doors?' and 'there are secret protocols,' etc., will be launched. The aim of the Russians is to destabilize the already complicated internal situation as much as possible. I won't reveal anything new by saying that at this stage, information security is becoming a fundamental challenge within the country," noted political scientist Vadim Denisenko.

Meanwhile, well-known international journalist Vitaly Portnikov emphasizes on his YouTube channel: "If we look at the results of the recent meeting between the U.S. president and the Israeli prime minister, which was expected to yield some realistic idea for ending the war in the Middle East, we can now say that this meeting did not diminish but rather increased the chaos in the region - both in terms of Trump's own statements and expectations. I am almost convinced that further events surrounding the conclusion of the Russian-Ukrainian war, if Donald Trump makes any of his own specific proposals, could lead to not a weakening but a strengthening of the chaotic situation both in our region and in the world."

As is known, Donald Trump stated that after the end of hostilities, Israel would hand over territories in Gaza to the United States. New comments from the Oval Office's occupant appeared on Thursday, February 6, on his social media platform, Truth Social. In particular, he wrote that "Palestinians will settle in much safer and more beautiful places, and new and modern homes will appear in the region." To implement this idea, the head of the White House intends to "establish cooperation with wonderful development teams from around the world." Before this, the 47th president of America proposed to build the "Riviera of the Middle East" in Gaza.

Trump's ideas were supported by the government of the Jewish state. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that residents of Gaza "must be granted the freedom to leave and immigrate." Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar called on others to listen to Trump's words. Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock sharply criticized the plan. In the Palestinian Authority, the U.S. president's statements were labeled as "an act of colonial thinking." In Riyadh, they refused to restore relations with Israel unless Palestinians receive rights to their statehood.

Meanwhile, after Trump announced his intention to take control of Gaza and turn it into a Middle Eastern resort, the Republican's team attempted to soften the essence of this proposal. Sources from Politico within the presidential circle hurried to assure that the idea regarding Gaza is merely part of a negotiating tactic. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also tried to ease the atmosphere. Speaking recently on Fox News, he questioned the necessity of deploying U.S. troops in the Palestinian enclave, explaining that the destruction of the Hamas group is Israel's responsibility.

At the same time, Israeli authorities seem to have taken the idea of relocating Palestinians outside of Gaza seriously. On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the military to prepare a plan outlining ways for mass exit from the enclave for Palestinians. "The plan will include options for movement through land crossings, as well as special conditions for exit by sea and air," the relevant minister clarified. Additionally, Israel Katz sarcastically noted that international players who previously accused Israel for its military campaign in Gaza could show solidarity with Palestinians in practice by "allowing every resident of Gaza to enter their territory." Mr. Katz hinted that these words were directed, in particular, at Spain, Ireland, and Norway. However, as noted by Israeli Channel 12, Palestinian relocants could very well be accepted in North Africa and the Horn of Africa. According to the channel, the American side is considering the relocation of Gaza residents to Morocco and autonomous regions in Somalia - Puntland and Somaliland, which have long sought recognition as independent states.

Speaking recently on Fox News, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed unequivocal support for the U.S. president's idea regarding the resettlement of Gaza and stated that the change of power in Washington has already altered the balance of power in the Middle East. "Trump's return to the White House provides enormous support to those who want to suppress aggression from Iran and prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump's presidency inspires Israel and all those who want the Middle East to be different," Netanyahu emphasized. He expressed confidence that interaction with the main ally will allow Israel to achieve a "serious" result at the regional level. Judging by his words, the Israeli leader understands this as further weakening of Tehran through military means.

As noted by CNN, during his visit to the U.S., the Israeli prime minister hoped to gain approval for a strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, but there are currently no signs of a transition to this scenario. In particular, the special representative of the current occupant of the Oval Office for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, recently avoided answering the question of whether Washington would provide its Middle Eastern ally with the "mother of all bombs" GBU-57 – a precision-guided munition weighing 13 tons, which the Jewish state has been seeking since the 2000s. This bomb is necessary to reach Iran's nuclear sites, which are located deep underground.

On social media, Donald Trump stated the following regarding this matter: "Reports that the U.S., in cooperation with Israel, is going to blow Iran to smithereens are greatly exaggerated." The old-new U.S. president called for immediate work on a "controlled peaceful nuclear agreement" with the Islamic Republic, which would allow it to "peacefully grow and prosper," but without military nuclear capabilities. Now experts are breaking analytical spears trying to understand what lies behind these words of the current occupant of the Oval Office – a real plan or yet another tactical ploy.

Meanwhile, while experts from around the world speculate about the forecast in this track, the aforementioned special representative of Trump for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, in a recent interview with The Post, mentioned that the U.S. president is ready to double sanctions to force the Kremlin to end the war it initiated. According to Mr. Kellogg, the current sanctions against Russia are at about 3 points on a 10-point scale in terms of "economic pressure severity." The special representative specifically emphasized that last Thursday, Trump gathered "the entire confirmed team" of advisors and cabinet members dealing with national security issues in the Oval Office – from Vice President JD Vance to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – and they discussed in detail "how to use all elements of national power" to put an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.