Putin and his allies: What diplomatic strategy is the Kremlin pursuing?

On Tuesday, January 28, the Council of the European Union (EU) overcame the not-so-stubborn resistance of Hungary and extended anti-Russian sanctions until July 31 of this year. Thus, Ukraine's partners are now moving forward with discussions on the 16th package of restrictive measures against the aggressor state. The substantive discussion is scheduled for February 22, aiming to come into effect precisely on the anniversary of the beginning of Putin's "special military operation." While there are no official specifics yet, numerous proposals exist. In particular, there are suggestions to blacklist sensitive items of Russian exports such as liquefied gas and fertilizers. At the same time, as reported by Reuters, India and China have already halted purchases of Russian oil for March delivery. The reason is the rising costs of tanker freight, which are not affected by U.S. sanctions. As is known, as it exited, the Biden administration dealt a farewell sanctioning blow to the so-called Russian shadow tanker fleet, and these are, in fact, the first consequences.

Overall, slowly but surely, sanctions against Putin's Russia are multiplying; however, the Kremlin dictator is doing his utmost to maintain a good face in a bad game. Moreover, the unchanging master of the Kremlin sends poorly veiled signals to Trump almost daily, emphasizing his key weakness—money. In particular, in an "interview" with "journalist" Pavel Zarubin, Putin stated that if Western countries ceased to support Ukraine, the "conflict" would end very quickly. "They won't last even a month if the money and, broadly speaking, the ammunition cease. That's it! Everything will end within a month and a half, or two. In this sense, Ukraine's sovereignty is almost zero," emphasized the Russian dictator.

He also noted that "the results of the dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv should be confirmed by the legitimate leadership of Ukraine, because the current law prohibiting negotiations was signed by the current head of the regime, who no longer has the right to cancel it." Additionally, Putin mentioned that he is ready to "assign people" for negotiations and subtly emphasized that in the spring of 2022, he was prepared for a face-to-face meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and "sent corresponding signals, including to former U.S. President Joe Biden." Thus, as we can see, Putin is going to great lengths to somehow reach out to Trump, who, according to Kremlin spokesman Peskov, "is not sending signals."

Meanwhile, Putin's statements have not gone unnoticed on the Pechersk Hills. President Zelensky stated that Moscow's actions are aimed at prolonging the war and avoiding real negotiations. "Putin has once again confirmed with his new statements that he fears negotiations, fears strong leaders, and is doing everything to prolong the war. Every step he takes and all his cynical tricks are aimed at making the war endless. In 2014, Russia began a hybrid war against Ukraine, which in 2022 became a full-scale one. Now we see that there is a possibility to achieve real peace, but it is Putin who is doing everything to either continue the full-scale killing or to gain a pause to prepare for a new full-scale invasion while delivering hybrid strikes," wrote the current master of Bankova on social media X.

The acting guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution also called on world leaders to learn from past mistakes and unite efforts to compel Russia to peace. According to him, Putin is using his capabilities to destroy peace but lacks the courage to confront strong and coordinated pressure.

"Sanctions are multiplying, oil risks declining, yet there are still no negotiations. Moreover, there isn't even a phone call from Trump to Putin, which is a bad sign for the RF. And the longer the so-called Trump pause lasts, the more nervous Putin becomes, twisting like a snake on a hot pan. It is telling that while he almost daily simulates readiness for peace, he is trying to maximize the 'drowning' of Kyiv through the hands, or rather, the mouths of his European puppets," notes a close ally of Bankova, a deputy from the pro-presidential "Servant of the People" party, in a conversation with Lenta.UA. The parliamentarian, when analyzing, for example, the Slovak direction, is partly right, as under the pretext of gas, the Slovak Prime Minister Fico is literally attacking the highest Ukrainian leadership head-on. Recently, this character labeled President Volodymyr Zelensky as "the enemy" of Slovakia: "Our enemy is Zelensky. Zelensky has brought about the problems we face. I don't like him because he harms Slovakia. Today, the Ukrainian president has nothing left but to inflate bubbles, as he thinks this bubble will free him from making tough decisions." Zelensky, in turn, accused Fico of paying for Russian gas with the independence and sovereignty of his country by choosing Moscow over Western partners.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry also criticized the recent statements of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, accusing him of attempting to shift responsibility for domestic political problems onto foreign states, particularly Ukraine. The department on Mykhailivska noted that against the backdrop of declining trust among Slovak society and protests against his pro-Russian course, Fico resorted to seeking external enemies and found them in Ukraine. "We view these absurd statements as attempts to shift responsibility for his own failures in domestic politics onto foreign states and leaders. We advise looking not abroad, but into the mirror. The Ukrainian side has repeatedly warned about the dangers of the current Slovak leadership's pro-Russian policy; however, the Prime Minister and part of the country's parliament have become intoxicated by Russian propaganda and have begun to label the leaders of friendly states as enemies. We are confident that such a position and policy of Robert Fico contradicts the choice of the Slovak people to be an integral part of the European community," concluded the Sibiga office.

Robert Fico, who has faced mass protests against his pro-Russian policy for the second consecutive month, experienced a new blow on January 28 in the form of a practical loss of parliamentary majority. Recall that following the snap elections in Slovakia in September 2023, the coalition led by Fico's Smer-SD ("Direction – Social Democracy"), Hlas-SD, and SNS (Slovak National Party) collectively secured 79 out of 150 parliamentary mandates. However, by the beginning of this week, two deputies were expelled from the Hlas party. This is in addition to a couple of lawmakers who, while remaining members of Hlas, have firmly stated that they will no longer adhere to the coalition line during voting. Thus, the ruling coalition now has the support of only 75 deputies against a minimal majority of 76 mandates. And since neither the ruling coalition nor the opposition, which together holds 71 mandates, has the majority of votes needed to make decisions, the situation threatens to result in a blockage of the legislative body in Slovakia.

In addition to intra-coalition problems, the situation for Fico is noticeably complicated by the opposition. On Tuesday, at the initiative of several opposition parties, the parliament convened for the second extraordinary session to consider a vote of no confidence in Fico's government. However, the chances of it taking place at all were slim. The disgraced Prime Minister preemptively announced that his party members would not attend the session, and the leader of Hlas-SD and simultaneously the Slovak Minister of Interior, Matúš Šutaj Eštok, made the same promise. As a result, only 66 deputies from opposition parties appeared in the session hall on Tuesday, and it was impossible to gather the necessary quorum of 76 votes—the session was never opened.

Primarily, the Slovak opposition is dissatisfied with the foreign policy course of Fico's government, particularly the strengthening of ties with the Kremlin while simultaneously distancing Bratislava from a unified Europe. As is known, on December 22, Fico visited the Kremlin, where he held face-to-face negotiations with Putin. As Fico himself explained, the main goal of the trip was to resolve the issue of gas supplies to Slovakia following Ukraine's cessation of transit across its territory. However, Fico's opponents harshly condemned this visit, urging him to discuss this issue with Kyiv rather than Moscow.

In this context, it is crucial to emphasize that the Slovak opposition enjoys support from a significant percentage of the local population. Recently, large-scale protests against Fico's foreign policy course swept through Slovak cities, gathering around 100,000 participants. The people demanded that the disgraced Prime Minister confirm Slovakia's commitment to the EU and NATO, and ideally—resign. Fico ignored such calls; however, the exit from the party coalition of four deputies representing the junior partner of the ruling party made his position extremely vulnerable. In this regard, Slovak media are increasingly discussing the case for extraordinary parliamentary elections. Notably, even before Fico's visit to Russia, public opinion polls consistently showed that the most popular party in the country was the liberal opposition movement "Progressive Slovakia," which pushed Fico's Smer-SD into second place. The second force in the ruling coalition, "Hlas," has also significantly dropped in the rankings, while the third member— the Slovak National Party, according to recent polls, is not even surpassing the five percent threshold for entering the country's legislative body. Thus, if an unscheduled electoral reboot takes place in the neighboring country, Robert Fico risks effectively becoming a Prime Minister with the prefix "ex."