With fear and reproach: How will the West respond to North Korea's open support for Putin?

Three weeks after the initial reports about the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia to assist the "brotherly" Putin regime in the war against Ukraine, Pyongyang has effectively publicly confirmed its plans. The North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, who recently traveled to Moscow to pay her respects to Putin, stated that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un had instructed support for Moscow from the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“From the very start of the 'special military operation' (the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine - Ed.), the respected Chairman of State Affairs (North Korea - Ed.) Kim Jong-un instructed us to unwaveringly and powerfully support and assist the Russian army and the Russian people in their sacred war,” Choe declared.

It is worth noting that NATO confirmed on October 23 that North Korea had also deployed several thousand soldiers to Russia. “If these troops are intended for the war in Ukraine, it signifies a significant escalation of North Korea's support for Russia's illegal war and is further evidence of Russia's considerable losses on the front,” stated NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhla.

While evidence of losses is certainly important, Ukraine is much more concerned about the actual assistance from its partners. Currently, it is known that Russia has transferred over 7,000 North Korean soldiers to areas near Ukraine. The North Koreans have been armed with, among other things, 60mm mortars, AK-12 assault rifles, RPK/PKM machine guns, SVD/SVU sniper rifles, "Phoenix" anti-tank guided missiles, and RPG-7s. They have also been issued several night vision devices, thermal imagers, collimator sights, and binoculars.

The West has reacted to this development, but in a rather strange manner. For instance, Germany announced that it would consider new sanctions against North Korea. This sounds almost comical, given that the strictest restrictions against North Korea have been in place for many years. Coming up with something that could surprise Kim Jong-un will be virtually impossible.

In London, the response was somewhat more elaborate. Defense Minister John Healey made this statement while presenting new data on the war in Ukraine in the House of Commons, stating that military cooperation between Russia and North Korea has serious implications for the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. He urged NATO and G7 countries to counter this growing aggressive alliance. However, the minister did not specify how this should be done.

Yet, the most vague responses came from the "citadel of democracy" – the United States. Commenting on reports of North Korean troops in the Kursk region of Russia, the sitting U.S. President Joe Biden said, “I am concerned about this.” When asked if Ukraine should strike North Korean forces, he replied, “If they cross into Ukraine, then yes.”

In turn, the head of the House Intelligence Committee, Mike Turner, stated that the U.S. and NATO allies should consider attacking “directly against North Korean forces” if they are present in Ukraine and engaged in combat on the side of Russia. Turner also believes that Ukraine should respond to Russian attacks with strikes from allied weapons on targets deep within Russian territory.

He noted that the involvement of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine should be a red line for the U.S. and NATO, and allies should not rule out strikes on North Korean forces if they are fighting in Ukraine. “I believe that the United States and NATO allies should seriously discuss and consider the possibility of attacking directly against North Korean forces if they are in Ukraine and attacking it,” Turner emphasized. It is also important to pay attention to the reaction of North Korea's key antagonist – South Korea, which is one of the world's leading producers of various types of weapons. South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin stated cautiously that Seoul's arms supplies to Kyiv will depend on the development of cooperation between Russia and North Korea. According to him, Seoul is closely monitoring the developments in the cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, including what North Korea will receive from Russia in exchange for military assistance in the conflict in Ukraine.

It is not surprising that Zelensky criticized the West for its “lack of response” to the deployment of North Korean troops to assist Russia.

“America is watching, Britain is watching, Germany is watching. Everyone is just waiting for North Korean soldiers to start striking Ukrainians,” said the President of Ukraine.

The appearance of North Korean soldiers on the battlefield in Europe is an historically unprecedented event that represents a serious escalation of the largest European invasion since World War II. However, the West's response has thus far been strikingly muted: much condemnation, but few attempts to impose any real consequences on Moscow or Pyongyang for what has occurred. The lack of resolve is exactly what Putin was counting on. The West's inability to hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine in 2014 revealed a deeply rooted desire to avoid direct confrontation with the Kremlin, which continues to shape Western policy regarding the war in Ukraine,” says Peter Dickinson, a scholar at the Atlantic Council and publisher of Business Ukraine and Lviv Today.

“Putin has skillfully exploited this fear of escalation, using a combination of nuclear blackmail and talk of Russia's 'red lines' to intimidate Western leaders and convince them to limit military support for Kyiv, thereby restricting Ukraine's ability to defend itself. As a result, the Ukrainian army has been forced to fight against a military superpower with its hands tied behind its back. The increasing involvement of North Korea in the Russian invasion of Ukraine underscores the shortsightedness of the West's failed escalation management policy. When North Korea began supplying artillery shells to Russia in late 2022, the West took no action. A year later, the first reports emerged that Russia was launching North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets. By early October 2024, Western intelligence agencies claimed that North Korea was supplying half of all munitions used by Russia in Ukraine. The deployment of troops to Ukraine has become a logical next step for the 'Hermit Kingdom,'” the expert believes.

According to Peter Dickinson, Putin is currently awaiting a collective response from the West to his introduction of North Korean troops into Ukraine. “If the response in Western capitals remains weak, he will push further, and soon we may see a sharp increase in the number of North Korean soldiers fighting in Europe. This could create conditions for a much larger war that Western leaders are so eager to avoid,” he concluded.