Agreement consent: What document will Zelensky sign with Trump in Washington?
On the evening of Wednesday, February 26, at the start of a meeting with U.S. administration ministers, Trump stated that Washington is "doing very well with Russia and Ukraine" in terms of ending the war. He added, "President Zelensky is set to arrive on Friday, and this is now confirmed. We need to sign an agreement; it will be a significant deal."
The excitement surrounding the deal between Kyiv and Washington, in which Americans expected access to future revenues from Ukraine's rare earth minerals amounting to $500 billion, has been ongoing for the past few days. This was accompanied by scandalous statements from the White House regarding Ukraine and personally about Zelensky. The current guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution has incurred the wrath of the old-new president of the United States by rejecting the deal in its original form simply because Washington essentially offered nothing to Kyiv in return—especially in terms of security guarantees. Essentially, the Ukrainian side was expected to share its natural resources with Americans as compensation for the funds the U.S. spent on military and humanitarian aid over the years of full-scale war.
On February 25, it was announced from Bankova that after "intensive negotiations," Ukraine and the U.S. had reached a compromise. The terms were agreed upon after "all unacceptable elements were removed from the text, and it is now more clearly stated how this agreement will contribute to security and peace in Ukraine," a certain Ukrainian official told CNN on the condition of anonymity. In particular, according to him, the U.S. removed Mr. Trump's demand for $500 billion in potential revenue from Ukrainian resources, settling instead on the decision to create a fund to which Kyiv will contribute 50% of the income from "future monetization" of minerals.
On Wednesday, February 26, Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal officially confirmed the conclusion of negotiations. On the same day, domestic media published the full text of the "Minerals Agreement," signed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Busent and Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko. The agreement indeed states that Ukraine and the U.S. have agreed to establish an Investment Recovery Fund; however, it notes that the parties still have more important negotiations ahead regarding how the fund will be managed jointly by representatives of both states.
Earlier, Trump indicated that under the agreement, Kyiv would receive "$350 billion and a lot of equipment, military hardware, and the right to continue fighting." Regarding the issue of supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, Trump said that they could "continue for some time, possibly until we reach a deal with Russia," adding that security for Ukraine "we will look for later."
Thus, as we can see, the key intrigue—whether Ukraine will receive solid security guarantees from the U.S.—remains. There is currently no clear and unambiguous answer to this question. Trump insists that guarantees to Kyiv should come from Europe. At the same time, President Zelensky, confirming his visit to the U.S. on February 28, stated: "An agreement with America. Support for our state and people. Guarantees of peace and security are key to preventing Russia from destroying the lives of other nations. I will meet with President Trump. It is important for me and for all of us in the world that American aid is not halted. Strength is needed on the path to peace." Prime Minister Shmyhal also assures that the agreement with the U.S. meets Ukraine's key condition—to mention security guarantees in the agreement.
It is worth noting that the draft text of the agreement turned out to be quite vague. "The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine's efforts to obtain the security guarantees necessary for establishing lasting peace. Participants will seek to identify the necessary steps to protect mutual investments," reads point 10 of the draft future deal. Meanwhile, as rumors in the political corridors suggest, all these details will literally be worked out "on the fly" by Vladimir Zelensky on his way to Washington. Some associates of the current occupant of the Oval Office, particularly the well-known Ukrainian senator Lindsey Graham, have indicated that the agreement on the joint development of rare earth minerals already serves as the best guarantee of security for our country—in the sense that the U.S. will always be ready to defend its investments in Ukraine. This is quite an argument, to be frank. If the signatories openly disregarded the Budapest Memorandum, then an unwritten phantom guarantee is essentially meaningless.
Meanwhile, the preliminary agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. is actively discussed in the world media. For instance, commenting on this track, The New York Times states the following: "In confirmation of Trump's mercantile approach to international relations, the deal with Ukraine resembles previous steps taken by the American president to enhance the economic potential of the U.S. by pressuring allies such as Canada and Colombia to comply with demands or at least start negotiations on them. The previous draft of the deal did not take into account the cost of lives that Ukraine has already paid in securing Europe—by repelling the initial Russian assault, preventing Russia's presence at NATO borders further west, and exhausting the Moscow army over three years of intense battles."
The Wall Street Journal emphasizes: "The signing of the agreement will be a personal victory for Zelensky, who sought a personal meeting with Trump but was instead forced to watch as the U.S. began negotiations with Moscow on how to end the war—without Ukraine's participation in these talks. The Ukrainian president had previously refused to sign a deal presented to him by a lower-ranking official, Treasury Secretary Scott Busent. Zelensky's refusal led to a sharp deterioration in relations between Washington and Kyiv. The Kremlin, hoping to further distance Washington from Kyiv, has expressed its own proposal to the U.S. for access to mineral resources in Russia, as well as in the parts of Ukraine occupied by the Russian Federation."
"A major reason why Trump is so eager to secure critically important minerals from Ukraine is China. Now more than ever, the Asian superpower is the world's factory, and this means that the location in the world where critical minerals are extracted becomes a decisive foothold in the supply chain. As Trump effectively provokes a trade war with China by imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods, access to critical minerals becomes a potential threat to the U.S. The world is shockingly consumed by the race for mineral wealth. They are the building blocks of the economy of the future, and if the U.S. does not secure them, someone else will," notes The Guardian.
German Der Spiegel emphasizes: "In recent days, heated debates have flared around the agreement, as the Ukrainian president initially refused to sign it. Not only in Ukraine but also in European countries, there has been justified outrage at the fact that Trump views the war-torn country, which has suffered significant destruction, as an opportunity for a lucrative deal."
"Trump has indeed pressured Zelensky to accept the agreement... The agreement gives Trump the opportunity to 'buy' the consent of his supporters for further support of Ukraine, especially if Washington needs Congress's approval for additional assistance to Ukraine in case negotiations with Russia drag on. Overall, this deal will allow Kyiv to continue fighting," notes Bloomberg.
"I constantly have the thought in my head that the 'agreement' that the Americans first brought to Kyiv and then clashed with Bankova is simply putting Zelensky on the spot. In each scenario, there are quite serious risks, primarily for him. If he signs, a campaign can be launched against him for surrendering national interests. If he does not sign, military assistance can be paused, putting the country at risk. Moreover, it is surprising that of all the points in the 'Victory Plan,' which Zelensky brought to the U.S. in September, only one point was extracted by the new administration, which currently does not save Ukraine from the creeping invasion of the Russian Federation. I am not even mentioning that this potential agreement does nothing to stop a possible subsequent invasion. The argument that Russian troops will not enter American enterprises is very strange. In Crimea, and in Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions, representations of American companies also existed," summarizes political scientist Viktor Shlynchak.
The main concern is that in the "bondage agreement on Ukrainian subsoil, imposed on us by Trump," there are no secret articles, like in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939 between Hitler and Stalin, expresses his fears political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko. Renowned journalist Yuri Butusov notes: "Trump's goal is to force an agreement on his terms and under his personal guarantees for the duration of his four-year term. What peace plan does Trump want to establish? In reality, Trump has not yet announced any peace plan. This indicates that Trump is trying to conclude a quick peace, like a broker on the stock exchange, and therefore does not pay attention to details. Has Trump now limited real assistance to Ukraine? No. Currently, all existing military assistance programs continue to operate, but no new programs are being adopted. This indicates that Trump is trying to avoid an actual break and influence primarily through information. However, threats to limit assistance have begun among U.S. leadership, and this requires a comprehensive response from Ukraine. Can Ukraine influence Trump, forcing him to change his position? Yes. Trump is the president of a country where there is no telethon, and the authorities are forced to respond to criticism from the media and civil society. That is, the authorities must be flexible."
Zelensky is now flying to the States. Before that, he stopped in Ireland for a meeting with local leadership. After which he will head to Washington. So far, everything looks very shaky and unclear. Especially since the trip is already accompanied by various informational leaks: Western media have