Betting on Deployment: Why Europe is Discussing the Potential Presence of Its Troops in Ukraine.

Let us remind you that the first person to publicly discuss the potential deployment of troops to war-torn Ukraine was the current occupant of the Élysée Palace. Back in February 2024, Emmanuel Macron acknowledged such a possibility, although at that time the idea seemed quite distant from reality.

Now, ten months later, this notion has been revived not only in France but also in the United Kingdom and Germany. "Radio Liberty" reports that Paris and London are contemplating options for ensuring Ukraine's security in the event of peace negotiations with Russia. According to a high-ranking NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, one such option is the deployment of French and British troops along the demarcation line to monitor a ceasefire that might be achieved as a result of negotiations after Donald Trump's return to the White House. The source also clarified that these discussions are taking place only in specific capitals and not at the NATO level.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius publicly responded to this information, stating that he does not rule out Germany's involvement in peacekeeping forces for Ukraine.

“We are preparing, we are playing out scenarios, but we are doing this confidentially... Now is not the time to publicly discuss scenarios,” said the German defense minister. Pistorius noted that the answer to the question of military participation in peacekeeping forces will ultimately depend on what “the conditions will be.”

“If there is a ceasefire and if someone – whoever it may be – decides to take peacekeeping measures with military means, this will depend on the type of mandate, scope, requirements, and consent of the warring parties,” the minister explained.

The development of concrete proposals and options for supporting Kyiv is crucial to guarantee the participation of European allies in the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia through the mediation of the newly elected U.S. president, a source told “Radio Liberty.”

The French newspaper Le Monde also reported on the revival of discussions regarding the deployment of European troops to our country. Citing its informed sources, the publication notes that such discussions have resumed in Paris and London against the backdrop of concerns about a possible withdrawal of U.S. support for Kyiv when Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. This topic was also raised on November 23 by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot in an interview with the BBC.

Barrot, who recently held talks with British Foreign Minister David Lammy in London, stated that Western allies should not impose any restrictions on their support for Ukraine or adhere to any "red lines." When asked whether this could mean the involvement of French troops in the war in Ukraine, he responded: “We do not rule out any option.”

For the first time, Berlin has also officially acknowledged such a possibility. In particular, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock did not rule out sending German peacekeepers to Ukraine. In response to a question about Germany's potential role in this, she stated that “the German side will support with all our strength anything that serves peace in the future.”

Meanwhile, the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, former Prime Minister of friendly Estonia Kaja Kallas, also mentioned the possibility of European military involvement in ensuring a ceasefire in Ukraine. According to her, soldiers from countries that have previously openly advocated for troop deployments could participate, including France and the Baltic states.

It is important to understand that the new discussions about sending European peacekeepers pertain specifically to the period after the ceasefire in negotiations, not during the hot phase of the war. Notably, in Zelensky's plan for victory, there is a separate point regarding the deployment of Western troops. What is stipulated there is unknown, as this particular case is classified. It is only known that these secret applications have been received and are being analyzed by the top leadership of the USA, UK, France, Italy, and Germany.

Discussions about troop deployments have recently been confirmed by two major news agencies - AFP and DW, also citing sources. They, like the aforementioned Western media, report that a military mission is being considered to monitor the ceasefire, in case an agreement can be reached.

Recall that earlier Western media reported that one of the options in Trump’s “peace plan” for Ukraine included the deployment of European troops along the demarcation line. However, Trump did not confirm the validity of such plans. Recently published theses from his representative for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg, also do not contain such a point.

It is very telling that, despite the lack of any specifics, tensions are already rising. In particular, Putin's spokesperson Peskov stated that “any peacekeepers can only be deployed on the front line with the consent of both parties to the conflict.” Thus, following the "wishes" of the Kremlin, both warring parties would need to agree to the presence of foreign troops along the front line to monitor the ceasefire. Clearly, the likelihood of the aggressor country agreeing to this is lower than that of non-fat kefir, which presents an additional stumbling block on the negotiating path.

However, political scientist Vadim Denisov is convinced that the Kremlin dictator currently does not desire any peaceful communications: “Putin does not want negotiations, but he understands that he will have to participate in them (oil at $50 remains a semi-mythical but also semi-real option). The necessity for Putin to engage in negotiations is almost a foregone conclusion, which is fundamental for understanding many other processes. Putin has exhausted all resources to raise stakes (even the “Nutcracker” launched at Kyiv changes nothing). The only option left for him is to attempt to cut off Ukraine's energy supply. But so far this has not succeeded. The main dilemma for Putin is psychological (psychiatric). He has not achieved and will not be able to achieve the main idea of the war – restoring Russia's status as a geopolitical pole in the world and unlimited policing functions in the post-Soviet space. On the other hand, continuing the war means an even greater plunge into technological dependence on China. But stopping the war means he has lost. He is not Russia, but personally he is.”

Based on the above, the expert points out that Putin's tactics of stalling for time may soon transform into another: setting conditions that will force Ukraine to abandon negotiations, or more precisely, the first iteration of negotiations, where the initiative is entirely in Washington's hands.

“In recent weeks we have all been analyzing the American Kellogg plan, forgetting to analyze the agenda that the Russians are advancing. And the Russians have very actively begun to talk again about the illegitimacy of power in Kyiv and the terrorist nature of Kyiv. We can assume that the Russians are already thinking about the upcoming elections in Ukraine, where they may not have the opportunity to influence (the pro-Russian electorate accounts for a maximum of 15%), but they are considering how to reformat the political landscape for themselves. This includes making deliberately humiliating demands to exclude certain players from the elections. Here they set two goals: to make it so that Ukraine derails the negotiations, and if that does not succeed, to indirectly influence the outcome of the elections. Although the basic scenario for the Russians now is to derail the first iteration of negotiations through Ukraine's hands,” summarizes Vadim Denisov.

Meanwhile, the well-known representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova stated that since the conflict resolution plan proposed by special envoy of the elected U.S. president Donald Trump, Keith Kellogg, is not an official document, “it is pointless to consider these ideas.”

“We are fundamentally ready to consider constructive proposals aimed at addressing the root causes of the conflict, which will take into account the realities on the ground in conjunction with the Russian interests we have outlined. I am not sure it is worth considering these ideas at the official level right now,” Zakharova stated at a briefing on Wednesday, December 4.

Putin, on the other hand, does not comment at all on the peace case, and especially on the circulating variations of peace initiatives from Trump and his associates. The day before, the Kremlin dictator spoke on the phone with the President of Turkey. And despite Mr. Erdogan's systematic attempts to act as a mediator in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war, the subject of his dialogue with Putin was not Ukraine, but Syria. This conversation, we note, clearly demonstrated the differences in interpretations. In particular, Ankara claims that it is doing everything possible to stabilize the situation in Syria. However, the Kremlin's message emphasizes the trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. It also highlights the key importance of close coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran in normalizing the situation in Syria.

Based on this official stance, there are some grounds to believe that the interested parties currently do not have a clear understanding of what to do next. And most importantly, who should handle it, given that Bashar Assad is unambiguously hinting that he cannot manage alone. Some experts are convinced that Damascus is not in any danger, but it will have to part with some territory, especially since the United States, Israel, and the Middle Eastern monarchies clearly do not wish to intervene. However, Jerusalem emphasizes that the presence of Iran and its proxies in this country is highly undesirable. Media reports suggest that the West and its Middle Eastern allies are allegedly offering Assad to abandon friendship with Tehran in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly indicated that the existing balance of power in Syria does not satisfy him. And during his phone rendezvous with the Kremlin dictator, as we have already noted, he emphasized that he is doing everything for stabilizing the situation – caring