Trump's beginning: when and how the Republican will take his first step toward ending the conflict.
In comparison to his victory in 2016, Donald Trump secured six more electoral votes by winning Nevada, a state that had previously resisted him. The leading Republican candidate also surpassed Kamala Harris in the nationwide voting. As of November 11, over 74.7 million people supported him, nearly 4 million more than the current Vice President. Votes are still being counted in "Democratic" California, which may slightly narrow the gap between the candidates; however, it's clear that this will not impact the final outcome.
Meanwhile, the elected president is swiftly focusing on staffing his administration. Among those being considered for positions in Trump's administration are names like the world's richest person Elon Musk and former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Notably, the first appointment announced by the Republican is historic. For the first time, a woman will lead the White House staff: 67-year-old Susan Wiles, one of the two heads of Trump's campaign. She has never been a public figure, but it is known that Ms. Wiles has been working for the Republicans for over 40 years; she was part of Ronald Reagan's team back in 1980, who won that election.
It should be noted that the head of staff position involves managing White House personnel and organizing the schedule of the Oval Office's occupant. Analysts believe this will allow her to play the role of a behind-the-scenes power broker while remaining out of the public eye.
Trump has also made his choices for two key foreign policy positions. Both roles are expected to be filled by politicians from the party's hawkish wing, who are more inclined to support Ukraine than traditional Trumpists. Numerous American media outlets report on Trump's selection of candidates. Thus, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is set to be nominated as Secretary of State, the head of the U.S. foreign affairs department, and he is currently the vice chair of the Intelligence Committee, as well as a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee.
The New York Times was the first to report on his nomination. His colleagues, including fellow Florida Senator Rick Scott, now publicly confirm his nomination. "He (Rubio) will restore American leadership in the world," Scott stated. The future Secretary of State is expected to be confirmed by Congress next year, but given the choice made and Trump's control in both chambers, this personnel decision is unlikely to face any problems. Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has built his image on supporting the overthrow of authoritarian regimes worldwide.
Rubio voted for the 2024 aid package for Ukraine, emphasized the importance of supporting our country, and even publicly criticized his party members for doubting the necessity of aiding Kyiv. Recently, he has somewhat altered his rhetoric regarding ways to end the war but remains in the more supportive camp for Ukraine among Republicans.
Congressman Mike Waltz, also elected from Florida, is expected to become the National Security Advisor. The Washington Post reports on his appointment. Waltz, like Rubio, is known for his hawkish foreign policy views.
Waltz is a veteran of the U.S. Army and the first "Green Beret" (having served in U.S. Special Operations Forces) elected to Congress. He has experience working at the Pentagon as an advisor and has also worked in the defense sector as a leader of one of the Department of Defense contractors. In the House of Representatives, he focuses on countering China and reducing dependence on Chinese resources, and he is considered one of the toughest critics of China in the Republican Party.
Waltz maintains a friendly relationship with Trump and advises him on national security matters. He advocates further support for Ukraine, but with an emphasis on controlling the spending of American taxpayers' money.
Meanwhile, it is already known that there will be no place for former U.S. Ambassador to the UN and Trump's former primary rival Nikki Haley, who consistently and openly supported Ukraine in its war against Putin's Russia, in Trump's administration. Additionally, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from his first presidential term will not be part of Trump's power team either. The elected U.S. president announced this personally. While the decision not to include Nikki Haley in the team did not surprise many, the absence of Pompeo was unexpected. The former Secretary of State remained loyal to Donald Trump after 2020 and was seen in Western media as a likely candidate for the position of Secretary of Defense in the new administration.
At the same time, Mike Pompeo was one of those who publicly articulated the "Trump plan" for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war during the height of the U.S. election campaign. In his interpretation, the "Trump plan" involved Ukraine joining the EU and NATO, increasing sanctions against the Russian Federation, "Lend-Lease" for Kyiv amounting to $500 billion for rearming the Armed Forces of Ukraine and demilitarizing Crimea.
According to recent media leaks, Donald Trump is still deciding which peace plan to choose. Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes that "in the near future," we should expect statements regarding an upcoming ceasefire, the parameters of this regime, and security guarantees for Ukraine.
"There are two concepts in Trump's team. Moreover, both have been articulated quite a while ago. The first is Pompeo's aggressive plan, and the second is the quasi-Finnish scenario from the analytical center AFPI (America First Political Institute), which has become a refuge for former Trump administration staffers. These are two directly opposing concepts. And I repeat, both have been voiced by people from Trump's circle. The fact that Trump did not take Pompeo into the new team means nothing. The plan is one of the options (poles) of his approach to Ukraine. Authorship does not matter. It is essential to emphasize that Trump adheres to a negotiation concept of "strategic uncertainty." This implies a wide range of negotiation options at every stage of discussions. Many consider this madness (he indeed has a flair for adventure). However, this broad spectrum of solution options keeps his counterparts in tension for as long as possible," notes political scientist Vadim Denisenko.
"Pompeo's plan is to pump Ukraine with weapons if Putin continues to make new demands. The AFPI plan includes the following points: Ukraine has no chance of joining NATO; Putin must receive guarantees of partial lifting of sanctions; a demilitarized zone is to be created (where exactly and what exactly is not specified); additional taxes on the sale of Russian energy resources should finance the reconstruction of Ukraine (the previous two points are direct quotes from an article in Foreign Affairs by Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan); Ukraine builds a long-term security architecture (what exactly is not specified), which will allow for a prolonged peace (currently this has turned into a mythical patrol by American-British troops of a 1000-kilometer buffer zone). One can assume the following basic scenario. Trump will initially align with the AFPI plan, presenting his ultimatums to Ukraine. Simultaneously, appropriate red lines will be communicated to Putin, warning him that otherwise, the Pompeo plan will be activated," models the situation the political scientist.
At the same time, well-known international journalist Vitaly Portnikov emphasizes on his YouTube channel: "One can discuss the proposals of Trump's circle regarding the cessation of the Russian-Ukrainian war for quite a long time. However, it is essential to understand clearly that Vladimir Putin can agree to a freeze of the war or its temporary halt only if the Russian president perceives some danger to his regime, problems for his economy, or the destruction of the social balance in the Russian Federation. If none of these prerequisites exist, Russia does not care about any peace proposals from Donald Trump. Those who understand this know how Putin reacts. And Putin reacts to instability in the Russian capital. Thus, if now Moscow, as indicated by sociological surveys, supports Putin's war against Ukraine more than any other region in the Russian Federation, the Russian president can confidently look to the near future and plan the next years of war against Ukraine. And no Trump can influence his perception of how this war should develop and what its immediate goal should be."
Emphasizing that Putin will face problems when the war becomes a routine for Muscovites, and their comfortable life ends as if it never existed, Vitaly Portnikov concluded: "This is what Volodymyr Zelensky talks about when he mentions peace through strength. Donald Trump may, evidently, have a different understanding of what peace through strength is, and we will soon learn about this understanding of the former, and now future American president after Trump's inauguration and once his administration begins to operate. However, it must be clearly understood that in this concept of peace through strength, even a freeze of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for an extended or brief period may occur only when power is demonstrated, and that power specifically impacts the Russian capital because any strikes on the Russian provinces leave Putin utterly indifferent to the unfolding events. Therefore, peace must be pursued not through proposals that are unlikely to interest the Russian leadership, which believes it can destroy Ukraine, but by exhausting the Russian Federation itself and creating problems for its chauvinistic and pro-Putin oriented population."
Meanwhile, as reported by the Associated Press, on the very first day of Trump's presidency, the issue of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war will be on his short list, for which the Republican intends to "bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table." The agency also emphasizes that during his presidency, Trump will not be a dictator, "except for the first day."
Meanwhile, President Zelensky, commenting on the Russian missile strike on a five-story building in his hometown Kryvyi