"Cracked ‘Hazelnut’: What is Putin aiming for before Trump returns to the White House?"

On the night of Thursday, November 28, Putin's Russia launched a new massive combined strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. More than 90 missiles were used in the attack – a figure noted not only by the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but also by the Kremlin dictator, which is significant as this is the first time he has done so. Putin claims that the strike was retribution for the use of American ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia. He also threatened a strike with the "Oreshnik" missile on "decision-making centers" in Kyiv. However, let's take it step by step.

It’s worth noting that the previous combined strike across our country by the terrorist state occurred on November 17. At that time, 120 missiles and 90 drones were used, as reported by the domestic General Staff. The targets, as now, were critical infrastructure facilities. This time, according to the Air Forces’ report, 91 missiles were used, including 28 naval-based Kalibr cruise missiles and 57 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from strategic bombers, as well as 97 kamikaze drones. A total of 79 missiles and 35 drones were shot down.

In Kyiv, missile debris fell in two districts, damaging outbuildings and a cargo vehicle. In the Odesa region, two people were injured. In Kharkiv, production facilities were damaged. Many regions were left without electricity. The combined strike by the Russians targeted energy facilities, with 12 hits "mainly on fuel and energy sector facilities," stated Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko.

Against the backdrop of yet another massive attack on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, Putin spoke while in Kazakhstan at the CSTO summit. For the first time since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, he disclosed the number of missiles used in the strike, and notably, the figures he provided closely matched those given earlier by the Air Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin dictator claimed that the targets of the strike were military facilities, defense industry objects, and their "support systems." He also described the new attack as a response to "unrelenting strikes" on Russian territory by American ATACMS missiles and Storm Shadow, adding that the infamous "Oreshnik" was also involved.

Interestingly, in recent days, the term "Oreshnik" has become somewhat of a meme in Russian politics. Specifically, the leader of one of the parliamentary parties (notably from so-called opposition political forces) appeared in the State Duma wearing a T-shirt with Putin's portrait and the inscription "Sturdy Oreshnik," while the head of the Communist Party, Zyuganov, even proposed establishing a state holiday in honor of the "successfully-Oreshnik" debut attacks on peaceful civilians in Ukrainian Dnipro.

Meanwhile, Putin, speaking at the CSTO summit in Kazakhstan, remarked that in the event of mass use of the new missile, the strike's power would be comparable to that of nuclear weapons, "although the Oreshnik is certainly not a weapon of mass destruction." According to him, the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense of Russia are currently "selecting targets for decision-making centers to be hit on Ukrainian territory."

Putin claims that serial production of the "Oreshnik" has already begun. However, Western media reports that Moscow has only a few such missiles, which Putin effectively confirmed in Kazakhstan: "Today we have several ready-to-use products of this kind." He described the deadly impact of his new weapon with undisguised enthusiasm: "Dozens of combat blocks, self-guided blocks, attack the target at a speed of 10 Machs, which is about three kilometers per second. The temperature of the damaging elements reaches 4000 degrees. If I’m not mistaken, the temperature on the surface of the sun is around 5,500-6,000 degrees. Therefore, everything in the explosion's epicenter is divided into fractions, into elementary particles, essentially turning to dust…”

Later at a press conference, Putin compared the Oreshnik strike to that of a meteorite. When asked which decision-making centers could be targeted, whether military or political, he evaded the question.

The Oreshnik strike on Dnipro suggests a hidden subtext – it is a direct "bait" from Putin for Washington. During Trump's first term, the U.S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). This occurred due to Russia's prolonged violations of the treaty conditions, particularly the development and deployment of the 9M729 missile system (SSC-8). The treaty between the USSR and the U.S. on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles was signed during the Soviet-American summit in Washington on December 8, 1987. The signatories were Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan. Given Putin's constant cosplay of past events, the logic suggests that the Kremlin is trying to "either by hook or by crook" negotiate with the Americans what Gorbachev and Reagan signed,” notes Viktor Shlynchak, chairman of the Institute of World Politics.

Questioned about why Putin needs this, the expert stated: "Everything here is obvious. The ultimate exit from international isolation, recognition of Russia as equal to the U.S., the beginning of open political contacts. All this is aimed at the further goal of involving the U.S. and Trump in an 'engaging' discourse around the greatness of Russia, in the process of which they can continue to impose on the American establishment the idea of 'historical rights' that should precede international law. If Trump 'bites' on this bait, we are in for some tough times. At least during Trump's first year. Because every newly elected U.S. president has tried to establish some constructive relations with Russia (Putin). But each time this experiment has failed because Russia has never kept its word and only resorted to threats. I would be glad if this time Trump, considering his past experience, wouldn’t experiment for long. Because time is too valuable for us. And U.S. support is crucial."

By the way, speaking of the United States, Donald Trump recently decided to reinstate the position of special envoy for Ukraine in his future administration. During his first presidential term, he created a similar post, which was held by diplomat Kurt Volker. However, the succeeding Democrat, Joe Biden, abolished this position. With Trump's return to the White House, who promised to end the Russian-Ukrainian war "very quickly," this special envoy will be reinstated. "I am very pleased to appoint K.T. McFarland as Assistant to the President and Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia. K.T. has had an outstanding military and business career, including serving in very important national security positions in my first administration. He has been with me from the very beginning!" Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.

Retired Lieutenant General, 80-year-old Vietnam War veteran K.T. McFarland served as Vice President's National Security Advisor during Trump's first term. In June of this year, K.T. McFarland, along with former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz, who also worked in the National Security Council during Trump’s tenure, presented a plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. The authors proposed using support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as leverage on both sides to force them to negotiate. In other words, Trump could halt military aid to Ukraine if it refuses peace talks, while Russia would be warned that any refusal to negotiate would lead to significantly increased support for Kyiv. Under the ideal scenario, hostilities would be frozen along the front line at the start of negotiations.

Additionally, according to the plan, the U.S. and its allies would undertake a long-term commitment (reportedly around 20 years) not to admit Ukraine into NATO and sign a "broad security guarantees" agreement with Russia. Ukraine would not be required to recognize any territories held by Moscow, but it must agree to their return exclusively through diplomatic means, no matter how long it takes. Furthermore, partial lifting of sanctions on Russia is proposed. However, at the same time, special duties on Russian oil could be introduced, the proceeds from which would finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.

McFarland and Fleitz, by the way, during the presentation of their plan in the summer, stated in unison that Donald Trump was "very receptive" to their ideas.

It should be noted that just a few days ago, Reuters reported that Richard Grenell is being considered as a candidate for the position of special envoy for the Russian-Ukrainian war. During his first presidency, he worked not only as the Director of National Intelligence but also as the U.S. Ambassador to Germany and as the special representative of the White House for peace negotiations in Serbia and Kosovo. Richard Grenell is described as an "extremely experienced diplomat," noted Reuters' sources, but they specified that the Ukrainian authorities are unlikely to accept his proposals, as he advocates creating "some unclear autonomous zones" within a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow and has also opposed Ukraine's admission to NATO. Aside from Grenell, former special representative for Iran Brian Hook and Trump’s lawyer Boris Epstein, who was born in Russia, were also considered for the special envoy role.

With Mr. McFarland's appointment, Trump has effectively formed a foreign policy team that will work on developing a "turnkey" peace plan. Prior to this, the Republican nominated Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State and appointed former Congressman Michael Waltz as his national security advisor. As for K.T. McFarland, he has commented on the course