The Third Force: What Role Could Saudis Play in the Russia-Ukraine War?

Speaking on Thursday, January 23, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the old-new U.S. President Donald Trump noted his intention to ask Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower oil prices. He added: “It needs to be reduced – which, to my surprise, they did not do before the (U.S. presidential) elections. If the price had dropped, the Russian-Ukrainian war would have ended immediately. Right now, the price is quite high, so the war will continue.” It is noteworthy that in this context, the current occupant of the White House also placed partial responsibility on Saudi Arabia and OPEC “to a certain extent for what is happening” in Ukraine, where “millions of people are dying.”

As is known, oil and gas exports are one of the key sources of revenue for the Russian budget amid sanctions following the full-scale invasion of our country.

It is important to note that prior to his speech at the forum in Davos, Trump had a phone conversation with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Among other things, he stated that Riyadh could increase investments and trade with Washington by $600 billion. This amount might increase, “if additional opportunities arise,” the Saudi heir added, emphasizing the Trump team's ability to create conditions for economic prosperity. “The Kingdom seeks to capitalize on existing opportunities for partnership and investments,” CNN quoted the crown prince.

Recently, Donald Trump himself, in response to journalists' questions about the prospects of his first foreign trip, suggested that he might head to Saudi Arabia – just as he did during his first term. This refers to the high-profile visit in 2017 when the U.S. president chose a Middle Eastern country for his inaugural trip abroad for the first time in history. During negotiations in Riyadh, the Saudi ruling house agreed to purchase American products worth $450 billion, the Republican recounted. If the kingdom expresses interest in deals of such a sum and even more, “taking inflation into account,” then the destination for the inaugural visit is determined, hinted the occupant of the Oval Office.

Overall, Saudi Arabia has always held a special place in Trump's policies. Moreover, during his first term, he promoted the concept of an “Arab NATO” – an anti-Iranian regional bloc, in which the Kingdom would play a major role. It was within this bloc paradigm that the “Abraham Accords” were born – a series of agreements to establish official ties between Israel and Arab countries. However, despite the opened channels of communication with the Jewish state, Saudi Arabia has not yet joined the normalization process – it was coordinating with the American side a list of preferences due to it. These negotiations continued during Joe Biden's presidency. However, much in the kingdom's approaches was changed by the war in the Gaza Strip: the ruling house was forced to return the Palestinian issue to the list of priorities due to public pressure.

Right after his inauguration, Donald Trump indicated that he would resume work on the “Abraham Accords,” and in his opinion, Saudi Arabia could reach agreements with the Jewish state before the end of the current year. However, the fact that the current occupant of the White House will resolve many issues surrounding Saudi Arabia based on business logic is indicated by the expanded interests of his empire in recent years. Thus, in 2024, the development company The Trump Organization announced that it would launch its projects in Saudi Arabia, presenting a construction initiative in Jeddah worth over $500 million.

At the same time, the son of the old-new American president, Eric Trump, who is the vice president of The Trump Organization, recently stated that there is “explosive growth” in the Middle East and that new development projects will undoubtedly emerge in the region. This will certainly serve as a serious motivation for his father to foster relations with Riyadh.

Meanwhile, in the swamps, they are trying to maintain a good face in a bad game. In particular, Putin's spokesperson Peskov, commenting recently on Donald Trump's latest ultimatum statements regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, claimed that the Kremlin is not surprised by the Republican's rhetoric: “We do not see any particularly new elements here. You know that Trump, in the first iteration of his presidency, was the American president who most frequently resorted to sanctions,” emphasized the Kremlin mouthpiece, simultaneously suggesting that the old-new president of the United States “likes these methods.” He added that Moscow is closely monitoring the rhetoric and statements of Mr. Trump and remains ready for “an equal and mutually respectful dialogue.” However, signals from the new administration in Washington regarding the organization of dialogue between Russia and the United States have not yet been received. “We are waiting for signals,” concluded Peskov.

Meanwhile, Reuters, citing certain high Kremlin sources, reported that the Russian leadership believes that the goals and objectives of the “special military operation” have mostly been achieved, and therefore there is a direct sense in moving to negotiations against the backdrop of the difficult situation in the Russian economy. In the Kremlin, through the same Peskov, they denied just the last part, claiming that overall they are doing well, of course, there are difficulties, but who doesn’t have them? Meanwhile, Vladimir Zelensky, while in Davos, stated in an interview with Bloomberg that he is ready for negotiations if Donald Trump personally guarantees Ukraine's security. An international contingent could be deployed on the territory of the country. However, without the Americans, there is no guarantee that he will be able to prevent the recurrence of armed confrontation.

Overall, it is obvious that what we see and hear is a classic example of exchanging informational blows. In this context, Trump made the first move, raised the stakes, and is making it clear that he intends to act from a position of strength.

“Trump does not consider Putin his equal in any way. Trump sees himself as the owner of the most powerful country in the world. And only with Xi Jinping can he negotiate about something, because China also has a powerful economy. But for Trump, Putin is just another small dictator from the alley who robs his country with his gang and also claims something more. Trump achieved everything himself, while Putin was brought to power by the Soviet KGB. As soon as Putin tries to elevate himself to the same level as Trump, and Trump notices it – a cross can be put on the Kremlin Führer. That, in fact, is the hope. But all this will begin when Ukraine can stabilize the front. If it cannot – aggression and war will continue,” models the situation political scientist Alexander Kochetkov.

In turn, his colleague in the expert community, Vadim Denisенко, emphasizes the following: “Putin's strategy in such complicated cases is always the same: he waits. He is that rat that doesn’t rush at the enemy but hides in a corner and waits for the situation to change. Putin is also clearly not ready for an open conflict with Trump, as his current strategy is to negotiate: “to disrupt the first round of negotiations with Ukraine’s hands.” Judging by this, Washington understands it too. And among other factors, this is exactly why Trump has allowed himself to speak to Putin not as an equal, but as the leader of a third-world country. It is obvious that the Kremlin was completely unprepared for such a tough ultimatum. The likelihood of effective negotiations currently looks, unfortunately, ghostly. The two basic factors for stopping the war – the loss of China's support and the collapse of Russia's oil capabilities – are still just a distant future. Therefore, Putin is highly likely to risk playing all-in. However, if everything goes according to Trump's scenario, he will begin to wear out closer to winter, and China is unlikely to help,”

Despite all this, according to the expert, the credibility of a rapid scenario for ending the war exists, but only on the condition of swift agreements between the U.S. and China and quick results on effectively blocking Russia's oil export capabilities. “Or Putin must fear something globally. And his main fear is life,” sums up Vadim Denisенко.