Ukraine and the "Trump Shock": What strategy is emerging between Bankova and the White House?

President Vladimir Zelensky is willing to engage in negotiations with Putin; however, Ukraine requires weapons capable of defending against a potential Russian nuclear strike or missile attack, the head of state stated recently in an interview with American journalist Piers Morgan.

“If this is the only configuration in which we can bring peace to the citizens of Ukraine without losing lives, we will certainly agree to a meeting (with Putin – ed.). I will not be kind to him; I consider him an enemy, and I genuinely believe that he sees me as an enemy as well,” emphasized the current guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution.

Discussing the security guarantees that the West must provide our country, Vladimir Zelensky pointed out that joining NATO is a long process that will take decades. Based on this, he believes that discussions today should focus on nuclear weapons and missiles that can protect Ukrainians from nuclear threats and Russian rockets. “Then let them (the West – ed.) return nuclear weapons to us and provide us with missiles in sufficient quantities to stop Russia,” said Zelensky. He also noted that allies should strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine and send Western military contingents “to those parts of our state where we want a stable situation.”

The current occupant of Bankova Street particularly emphasized that there can be no compromises on sovereignty, and thus Ukraine will never recognize the occupied territories as Russian: “We cannot currently reclaim all our territories. We are reasonable people. We cannot sacrifice millions of lives for an outcome that is not guaranteed. But we cannot violate the oath given to those who gave their lives for us in this war. We cannot raise the Constitution and recognize the occupied territories as Russian.” According to Zelensky, Ukraine currently lacks sufficient support from international partners to completely drive out Putin's "liberators" from Ukrainian territory. However, in the future, he predicts that these territories may be reclaimed through both military and diplomatic means.

“We will return the territories – it may be a combined approach: military on the battlefield, as our troops are doing, and in some cases through diplomatic means. But we will reclaim our land because we are right, and we have not violated any aspects of international law or moral law,” argued the president.

He also presented statistics indicating that over three years of full-scale war, our country has lost more than 45,000 soldiers killed, while the Russians have lost around 350,000.

“They (the Russians – ed.) have about 600-700 thousand wounded, with a ratio of roughly one to two, because their field medicine is weaker than ours, and they do not bring the wounded back. If a person is injured on the battlefield, they remain there; hence the estimates are approximately such, but they correspond very clearly to reality,” added Zelensky.

The head of state also explained that there are issues with statistics regarding prisoners and missing persons: “There are indeed thousands, and I don’t yet know the exact number of how many are truly missing and how many are in captivity, but we are working on it.”

Speaking about the case of elections, which has been actively discussed in recent days by Trump’s special representative for Ukraine and Russia, retired General Keith Kellogg, Zelensky emphasized that during wartime, there can be no elections in the country, as this is provided for by current legislation and, most importantly, the Constitution. Additionally, he noted, military personnel and millions of citizens in temporarily occupied territories and abroad will not have the opportunity to vote in elections. “Undoubtedly, the war will end, the hot phase of the war will conclude, and when martial law ends, then elections will certainly be scheduled. This is necessary. We are defending democracy, so it is essential,” said Zelensky, reminding that in 2019, 73% of voters supported him, so he is always “open to any elections.”

Moreover, in his interview with Piers Morgan, Zelensky also mentioned that in the first year of the war, Ukrainian citizens officially transferred at least $35 billion out of the country. “No one could stop them. It is their money, their right,” noted Zelensky, adding that the Russian-Ukrainian war has brought the U.S. “billions in revenue and invaluable combat experience.”

As of today, Vladimir Zelensky concluded, Ukraine is ready for the active phase of the war to end and “is striving for peace more than anyone else in the world.”

Interestingly, virtually simultaneously with Zelensky, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova stated that Kyiv is indeed ready to hold discussions about conducting presidential elections in the country by the end of the year if the White House officially raises such a question. However, according to her, there has been no substantive discussion on this matter to date. The diplomat also reported that she is working on organizing meetings between the teams of Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump.

Thus, as we can see, the current occupant of Bankova Street's categorical stance on elections, based on existing legislation, is in stark contrast to the message from Mrs. Markarova, who likely cannot play independently. It seems that by simultaneously throwing out diametrically opposed theses, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to leave room for maneuver.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has announced “great progress” regarding peace negotiations. The old-new occupant of the Oval Office also mentioned that he is quite supportive of the idea of obtaining Ukrainian rare earth metals in exchange for financial and other assistance. The topic of domestic lithium has indeed been in the spotlight lately, but the corresponding proposal was previously made by Vladimir Zelensky himself, clearly hoping for the so-called business approach of the 47th President of the United States. And judging by Trump's reaction, this calculation has partly paid off. In this context, it should be noted that our country has four lithium deposits, two of which are currently under the control of the Russians. Whether these details are known to the head of the White House is still unclear. However, Mr. Trump continues to assert that he is ready to discuss achieving peace in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Notably, the aforementioned Keith Kellogg is expected to visit Kyiv soon and then head to the Munich Security Conference, where Trump's peace plan will be presented in more detail. The forum will begin its work in just over a week, specifically on February 14. It will be chaired by former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Russian representatives have once again not been invited to the event. However, it is possible that Mr. Kellogg may visit the aggressor country in the foreseeable future. In any case, he himself has not ruled out such an option before. Meanwhile, during the night of Wednesday, February 5, in Kyiv, Trump stated at a press conference following talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington that “very good and constructive negotiations” are already taking place with the authorities of Ukraine and Russia. During the same meeting with Mr. Netanyahu, the U.S. President unexpectedly claimed that, just like Greenland, Canada, and Panama, the U.S. could take Gaza, with which Israel doesn’t know what else to do. Noted political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko commented on this: “Speaking of Gaza, the ‘grand’ Trump easily ‘relocated’ the local Palestinians to neighboring Arab countries. If the American president is so confident in his abilities and plans and is so bold, why not first practice and free Crimea from Russian occupation, and together with Ukraine make the peninsula an international resort pearl, relocating the ‘newcomers’ to Putin's Russia, which is in dire need of population growth?”

At the same time, Mr. Nebozhenko's colleague in the expert community, political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, uses the very fitting and apt term “Trump Tremor” in his assessments: “It has begun! The first flashes of a tariff war in the global economy and a ‘Trump Tremor’ in U.S. domestic politics. Trump seems to regard customs tariffs as a magic wand that solves all economic and political problems, as well as a weapon of revenge for various grievances against the U.S. that he perceives or simply invents for himself. But Trump is not alone. There is also Elon Musk. Together, they are like the riders of an anti-liberal and anti-globalist apocalypse. Or like ‘Lenin’ and ‘Trotsky’ of the conservative-populist revolution. Moreover, Musk, like Trotsky, aspires to a world revolution. Somewhere out there is a potential MAGA-Stalin waiting for his moment? Perhaps this role is being eyed by J.D. Vance (who has suspiciously quieted down) or Donald Trump Jr. There were the Kennedy and Bush clans. Why not have a political clan of Trumps? Joking aside, Trump, Musk, and all this MAGA brotherhood are like the ‘scourge of God,’ a punishment for all the sins and distortions of liberal politics and economics. They play a destructive role. God forbid they do not destroy ‘to the ground’ both American democracy and the leadership role of the U.S. in the world. I hope that they will be succeeded by those who will begin to build (or restore) on the foundation of democratic values.”

Emphasizing that Ukraine naturally interests Trump as a peacemaker, Vladimir Fesenko concluded: “The ‘Trump Tremor’ partially affects us, including the issue of assistance to Ukraine. To do this, we have to adapt to Trump. But, as with every natural disaster, and the ‘Trump Tremor’ is a political natural disaster, we must take precautions and prepare rescue measures in advance.”