Donald’s Era: How Trump Made His Mark on History and Will He Get Stuck in It?

On Tuesday, January 7, elected U.S. President Donald Trump expressed on the social media platform Truth Social that the outgoing White House leader, Joe Biden, is complicating the power transition process and is doing “everything possible” to hinder it. Trump cited the outgoing administration's decisions regarding environmental and oil extraction policies, mentioning “unprecedented legal battles and costly, absurd decrees” as examples.

Biden's team quickly dismissed these accusations, reminding that Mr. Trump failed to ensure a peaceful political transition in 2021. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that the majority of Americans voted for Trump and emphasized Joe Biden's respect for that choice. “I will not comment on everything the elected president says, but the sitting president will welcome Mr. Trump to the White House on the morning of January 20, and will then attend his inauguration ceremony,” she concluded.

Recall that on January 6, 2021, following Biden's victory in the 2020 elections, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building in an attempt to disrupt the certification of the election results. Speaking of the recent elections, the recently concluded 2024 year has been termed historic for the U.S. In any case, this is how nearly all active participants in American politics referred to it.

Joe Biden, who turned 81 at that time, celebrated the New Year 2024 as the virtually uncontested Democratic candidate for U.S. president and was determined to serve a second term, remaining in the Oval Office until January 20, 2029. The leading Democrat consistently urged the public to allow him to “finish the job.” Meanwhile, the public was not enthusiastic about the plans of the White House occupant. Social surveys indicated that ordinary Americans were extremely concerned about Mr. Biden's advanced age. On one hand, this was a significant issue. On the other hand, the foreign policy backdrop left much to be desired. Specifically, regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, Washington, citing the term “escalation,” was providing assistance to Kyiv, as many experts noted, with a teaspoon when a shovel was needed.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden, in the absence of alternative candidates, was marching through the Democratic primary with ease and could focus directly on battling the future Republican candidate, Trump.

It should be noted that, not forgetting the grievances from the 2020 defeat, 78-year-old Trump waged an extremely aggressive campaign against Biden: he threatened to overturn almost every aspect of U.S. domestic and foreign policy if he won, insulted his opponent with harsh language, and disparaged his health and age. Biden, however, also did not shy away from making statements, trying to convince the public that his competitor was a potential criminal, a misogynist, a racist, and overall the most dangerous political figure for American democracy in its entire history.

However, even the fact that in late May, Donald Trump was found guilty of a felony by a Manhattan jury, thus becoming the first president in U.S. history (either former or current) with a “convicted criminal” status, did not help Biden rise in the approval ratings. The culmination of Joe Biden's extremely unsuccessful bid for a second term came during the debates with Donald Trump on June 27, where the Democrat objectively, to put it mildly, faltered. As a result, there were urgent calls within the Democratic Party for the president to exit the race and allow someone else to compete for the keys to the Oval Office. Meanwhile, Biden was in no rush to make a decision.

However, on July 13, an event occurred after which the overwhelming majority of experts concluded that the incumbent U.S. president's chances of victory were definitively buried. On that day, it was reported that Donald Trump was the target of an assassination attempt during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania: a bullet fired by the assailant grazed the ear of the leading Republican, who found himself mere millimeters away from death. Photographs of the bloodied Trump, raising his clenched fist and shouting “Fight, fight, fight!” circulated around the world.

By July 21, Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and proposed appointing current Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. At that moment, the campaign seemed to literally flip upside down. Ms. Harris’s ratings began to rise, and she soon outpaced Trump on a national scale, as well as started to surge ahead in swing states. Kamala Harris also demonstrated her strengths during the debates with Donald Trump on September 10, where viewers awarded the Democrat a decisive victory. However, as it later turned out, that day marked the peak of her electoral triumph. The closer the elections approached, the worse Kamala Harris’s position became. Additionally, on September 15, there was a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump—58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh attempted to kill the former president while hiding in the bushes near the Republican's golf club in Florida. While this second assassination attempt on Mr. Trump was less dramatic than the incident in Pennsylvania, it was still heavily publicized by the Republican's campaign.

By the election finish line on November 5, candidates approached with nearly equal chances of victory, according to sociological data. However, by the morning of November 6, it became clear that the former president was not only winning the elections but also taking all seven swing states, achieving a historically high number of votes for a Republican candidate in absolute terms, and becoming the first representative of his party since 2004 to win both in the Electoral College and in the nationwide popular vote.

Thus, Donald Trump made history as the second U.S. president to return to the White House four years after losing an election. Before him, only Democrat Grover Cleveland achieved this in 1892. Furthermore, the Republican will become the oldest leader in U.S. history at the time of inauguration, taking that title from Joe Biden.

Regardless, the U.S. and the entire world are now poised in anticipation of January 20, when the former president will once again become the master of the White House for the next four years. Yet, no one really knows what changes American policy will undergo, as Mr. Trump has already earned a reputation as an unpredictable politician and clearly does not intend to dismantle that image.

Before the U.S. presidential elections, many Western analysts sounded the alarm, claiming that with Trump’s return to the Oval Office, Ukraine could lose support and would ultimately have to negotiate on the aggressor country's terms. Meanwhile, following his election victory, Trump has already met with Zelensky twice and no longer refers to the Kremlin dictator as his “big friend.” Even before the calendar turned to 2025, Trump conducted dozens of calls and meetings with Western leaders, with the central topic of discussion being the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The newly elected U.S. president seems to have trapped himself by focusing not on key domestic political plans but on the imminent end of the Russia-Ukraine war, the recipe for which no one in the world knows. Of course, it is still possible to reverse everything, explaining the priorities of the first weeks after the inauguration as a request from voters (who are traditionally much more interested in domestic politics than foreign). Otherwise, there is only one way forward—deep and comprehensive negotiations with China, where China must be promised enough to agree to exert significant pressure on Putin. China is currently sitting quietly and rubbing its hands in anticipation of big wins. If Chinese demands turn out to be too high, it will be necessary to pressure Putin under conditions where China will support him (because it will not want to give up its gains). However, Trump always has the option to terminate negotiations, blaming Russia, Ukraine, or Europe, or all three simultaneously. The question remains, who would then be the best negotiator in the world?” notes Valery Pekar, a professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.

By the way, speaking of the negotiation case, it should be noted that on Tuesday, January 7, it became known that Trump’s representative for Ukraine, Kit Kellogg, postponed his trip to Kyiv, which was scheduled for early January. This was reported by Reuters, citing sources. It is expected that Mr. Kellogg will travel to Ukraine after Trump takes office, although the exact date of the trip has not yet been set, the agency's sources stated. The reason for the postponement of the visit was not specified.

It is quite telling that soon after the news of Kellogg's postponed visit became public, Trump himself stated that he “can understand Russia's feelings” regarding Biden allegedly violating the “agreement” not to accept Ukraine into NATO. The future American president once again placed the blame on the Biden administration for the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking about the reasons for the war, he stated that the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO had been “a significant part of the problem for Russia for many, many years.” “And somewhere around that time, Biden said: ‘No, they (the Ukrainians) should be able to join NATO.’ Well, then someone in Russia is appearing at the doorstep. And I can understand their feelings on this issue,” Trump stated at a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate. When asked by a journalist to clarify when exactly the U.S. denied Ukraine's possibility of joining NATO, the elected president replied: “I think it has always been understood.” Additionally, Mr. Trump stated that he would manage to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war within the next six months.

“From ‘I trust Putin’ in 2019 to ‘I understand Russia's feelings’ regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership, just five years have passed. No, older people do not change.