On January 20, Donald Trump will return to the White House on a victorious white horse, four years after his defeat in the 2020 election. Without waiting for the de jure inauguration of the leading Republican, his associates are actively commenting on the upcoming steps of the new administration. This includes the prospects for resolving the Russia-Ukraine war, which Trump previously promised to end "in 24 hours." However, recently the timeline for establishing peace has shifted. In particular, according to the future U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keta Kellogg, the soon-to-be occupant of the White House aims to achieve a ceasefire within the first hundred days of his presidency. Meanwhile, preparations for initiating the process by Mr. Trump's associates are underway, and one of its components is expected to be a meeting between the old-new American leader and the Kremlin dictator.
Mike Waltz, appointed by Donald Trump as his national security advisor, recently stated in an interview with ABC News that preparations for face-to-face talks between the two leaders "are in full swing," and announced a phone conversation between Trump and Putin in the coming days or weeks. According to Waltz, Donald Trump is determined to "make a deal," but it is impossible to achieve this without maintaining any relations or dialogue "with the other side." At the same time, the future advisor to the upcoming U.S. president could not confirm whether the talks would involve a bilateral meeting or discussions that include President Zelensky as well. "We haven't defined the exact format yet," Waltz emphasized.
He also added that the stabilization of the front by the Ukrainian side could play an important role in starting negotiations. In this regard, he urged Ukraine to "resolve" the issue of manpower shortages on the battlefield. It is noteworthy that Putin's spokesman Peskov assured immediately after Mike Waltz's interview that "there is currently no substantive preparation."
Against this somewhat murky backdrop, a peculiar competition is underway among third countries eager to host a potential meeting. Switzerland has expressed its readiness to organize the negotiations between Trump and Putin, as stated by the head of the press service of the local Foreign Ministry, Nicolas Bido, who reminded of the successful "peace summit" in Burgenstock in the summer of 2024. However, the prospects for official Bern to become a venue for such a meeting are not particularly, shall we say, clear. First of all, because after February 2022, shortly after the start of Putin's "special operation," Russia included Switzerland on its list of "unfriendly states," and the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov, publicly stated that it could no longer be considered a neutral country.
However, the list of countries wishing to play the role of "location" for Trump's meeting with Putin is not limited to Switzerland. Recently, Kazakhstan announced its readiness to provide a venue for the meeting. The President of the Republic, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, mentioned that during a phone conversation, Trump asked him about his vision for ending hostilities in Ukraine. Tokayev emphasized that Astana "is not pushing" to be a mediator but is always ready "to help resolve international problems." In a similar vein, Turkish leader Erdogan and the Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who lost his "roof" due to the halt in gas transit from Russia, have expressed their willingness.
However, Serbia has been the most active on this track. Its President Aleksandar Vucic assured on January 12 that Belgrade is extremely interested and ready to host a meeting between Donald Trump and Putin, guaranteeing ironclad security for both. According to him, Serbia is "the place on Earth that would be extremely suitable for both." "This is a country where President Trump enjoys the highest support throughout Europe. There is no country that could compare with Serbia in terms of approval for President Trump... This is also a country where President Putin is very, very popular," Vucic summarized.
However, as noted by Kremlin spokesman Peskov on January 13, it is "premature to talk about any specific venue" at this point: "Many countries are offering their services as potential hosts for talks, but we can discuss this in more detail after Donald Trump's inauguration."
Regardless, it is essential to understand that the mere fact of a planned meeting, and even its execution, does not guarantee real success in such negotiations, as demonstrated by the past experiences of Putin's Russia with Donald Trump's administration from 2017 to 2021 during his first presidential term. In particular, during the first personal meeting between Trump and Putin, which took place on July 7, 2017, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg, an agreement was reached to restart the bilateral communication channel on Ukraine. Before that, dialogue on this issue was conducted through U.S. Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Putin's aide Vladislav Surkov. After Ms. Nuland left the State Department, former NATO envoy Kurt Volker was appointed as the U.S. special representative for Ukraine, who was to conduct consultations with Russia. He held four meetings with Surkov in 2017-2018, but after that, this communication line was interrupted. In short, after the Hamburg talks between Trump and Putin, which, it should be noted, lasted more than two hours, the ice in this direction has not budged, despite both sides patting themselves on the back, insisting how productive and effective their conversation was. Meanwhile, contacts between Moscow and one of its allies in the Russia-Ukraine war – Iran – can currently be termed effective.
Thus, the president of that country, Masoud Pezeshkian, will visit Russia on January 17 for talks with Putin and signing a "comprehensive strategic partnership" agreement. According to media leaks, one of the priorities will be cooperation in the field of security and defense. Thus, Moscow and Tehran are taking a demonstrative step towards rapprochement ahead of Trump's inauguration, who does not rule out war with Iran. Moreover, as reported by The Wall Street Journal citing informed sources, Donald Trump, upon taking office, is considering the possibility of launching preemptive airstrikes against Iran to prevent the creation of nuclear weapons in the Islamic Republic. This scenario was also considered by President Biden with his team before leaving the White House, but he never made a final decision to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
“The threats from the U.S. to attack Iran's nuclear program facilities are a gross violation of international norms! The UN Security Council should hold the U.S. accountable internationally,” stated the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ismail Baghaei, reacting to thematic waves in leading Western media. It is indeed amusing to hear about international norms from a representative of a country that has been supplying drones to Putin's Russia for over three years.
However, this is not the main issue; rather, the signed Russian-Iranian agreement on comprehensive strategic partnership will undoubtedly become a new serious irritant in the relations between the two signatory countries with the U.S. and the West as a whole. It is evident that a chain reaction could lead to additional communication difficulties between Trump and Putin. Speaking of the latter, Joe Biden commented on this in his farewell address.
“When Putin invaded Ukraine, he thought he would capture Kyiv in a matter of days. In reality, after the war began, I visited central Kyiv, not him. Putin did not do that. It was a long train ride! But I am the only commander-in-chief (of the U.S. – ed.) to visit a combat zone not controlled by U.S. forces! The U.S. helped Ukraine and stopped Putin, so after nearly three years of full-scale invasion, he has not achieved any strategic goals. We have laid the groundwork for the next administration to protect the bright future of the Ukrainian people,” emphasized the outgoing occupant of the White House.
“Biden's statement that following the Russian 'special operation,' it was not Putin but he who walked in the center of Kyiv will become legendary. And this is the absolute truth. And for this – gratitude to the U.S. government, which armed us, helped us, and encouraged us to become better. However… The last months of Biden's administration (and this will be remembered the most) were the least effective and weakest of the entire Democrat term. The billions of dollars in military aid that we hoped for and did not receive, due to a lack of will and political determination, confirm this. Not to mention other expectations… Therefore, the current administration of the White House will certainly not go down in history as having done everything possible to return this world to stable normality, international law, and justice. And it is still unknown what awaits the world in Trump's era. Therefore, the main thing now is to understand that no one owes us anything and to continue to fight for our own,” fairly notes Viktor Shlynchak, head of the World Policy Institute.
Romashova Natalia