A Night Without "Shaheds": Why Russia Paused Its Attacks and How Weather Factors In.

On the night of Tuesday, December 10, the Russian Federation did not launch "Shahed" drones over Ukrainian territory. This marked a brief pause amidst the attacks that have been occurring since the beginning of autumn.

For insights on the reasons behind this pause and whether the weather played a role, read the article from RBK-Ukraine.

What is known about drone attacks

Since the beginning of autumn, the Russian Federation has significantly increased the number of drone attacks in Ukraine. According to media reports, the number of drones launched by Russia this autumn has exceeded 6000. This figure is four times higher than the number of drones launched in autumn 2023.

Since December 1 of this year, the Russian Federation has launched over 480 drones across Ukraine. However, on the night of December 9 to 10, the Russians did not attack Ukraine with kamikaze drones.

Why Russia might have paused drone attacks

According to military expert and reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexey Hetman, Russia is likely to continue conducting similar aerial attacks. However, it is essential to consider how long the preparations for these attacks lasted and the drones that were launched beforehand, which were prepared weeks in advance. He stated that this is related to the need for a corresponding program to be outlined for where and when to launch the drones.

"Everything is prepared in advance. I think they simply ran out of preliminary planning. Therefore, there could be a pause (in attacks with 'Shaheds' - ed.) between what was planned and what is currently being prepared. There is no need to look for some sort of conspiracy here. They have simply completed one set of combat orders and are preparing new ones," Hetman explained.

The expert believes that Russia may launch "Shaheds" again tonight. However, there is a possibility that this pause could extend. This may be due to the Russians' desire to "accumulate" "Shaheds."

"It can be assumed that they are preparing a missile strike and want to execute this strike alongside a large number of drones. But once again, this is no more than a supposition. Most likely, this pause is connected to the fact that they are still preparing the next phase and will resume what they have been doing," Hetman emphasized.

What influenced Russia's decision

At the same time, aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap believes that there could be several reasons for such a pause.

In his opinion, the Russians may be preoccupied with "improving" the situation for Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Hence, the Russian Federation may currently not be focused on shelling Ukraine.

The second reason he identifies could be the poor weather conditions. In recent days, meteorologists have warned of significant fog and ice, which can affect the range and trajectory of "Shahed" flights.

"The reason might be that we struck some warehouses and 'buried' the 'Shaheds,' causing them to explode. Anything is possible. It is very difficult to forecast something accurately here. But the main factors are the weather and the actual physical shortage of these 'Shaheds'," Krivolap states.

The expert believes that Russia currently does not have issues with producing new "Shaheds." However, Ukrainian forces may have struck at the enemy's logistics.

"After all, we are hitting the Kursk region and Voronezh. But mainly it is the 'Khalino' airfield from which they launch many 'Shaheds' towards Ukraine. Because it is quite far from Primorsko-Akhtarsk for them... So, without any conspiracy theories, there are no direct dependencies here," he pointed out.

According to the expert, the reason behind the enemy's pause in "Shahed" attacks at night is likely influenced by weather factors with a 70-80% probability.

Drone attacks on Ukraine

The Russian Federation has significantly increased its drone attacks over Ukrainian territory this autumn. In recent months, the enemy has been launching dozens of "Shaheds" almost every night.

Previously, we reported on why the Russian Federation has "paused" missile attacks and is striking with drones every night.

Yesterday, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that over the past week, Russia used nearly 500 guided aerial bombs, more than 400 strike drones, and almost 20 missiles of various types against Ukraine.